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000
FXUS63 KAPX 131059
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...YET STILL CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. A WARM UP BEGIN TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING IN A SHOT AT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL WORK IN OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A RATHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DECENT SUNSHINE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

DRY AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO THE THE REGION AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT WELL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CORE OF COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND THE BL MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY YET TO
PREVENT A BRIEF BLOW-UP IN STRATO CU WITH SUNRISE. DOUBT SKIES GO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO
CONTINUED DRYING AND WAA INTO THE BL...BUT A PERIOD OF STRATO CU
IS EXPECTED UNTIL FURTHER MIXING INTO THE DAY DRAWS IN EVEN DRIER
AIR ALOFT EVENTUALLY LEADS TO PRETTY MUCH SUNNY SKIES FOR A TIME
TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL START TO WORK IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN
LATER TODAY/TOWARD EVENING. WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING GOING AS
ALMOST ALL COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

WELL...THAT WAS JUST A DISGUSTING 24 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER. LET`S
SEE WHAT WE CAN DO ABOUT FIXING THAT PROBLEM. THE EARLY MORNING
WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS SOME GOOD PROMISE...FEATURING A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES AT THIS EARLY HOUR...
WITH A TREMENDOUS SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ALL WHILE RATHER
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. CLOSER TO HOME...OUR PESKY CLOSED UPPER LOW IS GRADUALLY
MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THOUGH RATHER
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING DOES STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AT THE MOMENT. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS ARE ALSO IN OUR
FAVOR...WITH EARLIER LINGERING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN RESIDUAL LIGHT
SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA HAVING DWINDLED...WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXITING TO THE EAST.

UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING TELL THE TREND FOR
TODAY...WITH PLENTIFUL CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY
MIDDAY. INCOMING AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...WITH PWATS PROGGED TO DIP
DOWN TOWARD A PALTRY 0.15" BY 18Z...IN LINE WITH OBSERVED OBS ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SIMPLE MIXING BY GRADUAL HEATING
SHOULD DO THE TRICK TO HELP LOWER DEW POINTS RATHER RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE DAY...AND BASED ON OBS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CAN FORESEE READINGS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN SPOTS. GRADUAL LOSS OF BEST
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL ONLY HELP TEMPS RECOVER FROM THEIR EARLY
MORNING CHILLY LEVELS...WITH MID MAY SUN ALSO WORKING SOME MAGIC TO
PUSH READINGS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S...COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORES WHERE SOME ONSHORE TURNING MAY HOLD VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S. ALSO SHOULD BE A SOMEWHAT SNEAKY BREEZY DAY WITH MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUPPORTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS...VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH MN/WI OBS EARLIER. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MAINLY THICKER CIRRUS FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY
PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST FOR MOST PARTS THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z (MAYBE
THICKER CLOUDS WEST OF I-75 AFTER THAT).

FOR TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SEE ANY
PRECIP AS WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ALOFT RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF AN
ELEVATED/SURFACE WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
MID MISS VALLEY. NO DOUBT WE WILL SEE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS
SAID ASCENT GOES INTO TOP-DOWN SATURATION...BUT GRADUAL LOSS OF BEST
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING (WHICH RE-FOCUSES OUT ACROSS EASTERN SD/ND) IN
COMBINATION WITH TREMENDOUSLY DRY AIR BELOW 600-700MB STRONGLY
ARGUES FOR NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE
GROUND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. PRIOR TO THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER...RESIDUAL WEAK GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES/LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A BRIEF TIME...
BEFORE RISING AFTER 06Z WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A FROST MENTION ROUGHLY EAST OF I-75...BUT DON`T
SEE THIS BEING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE SETUP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DRIZZLY/LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE STRIPS OUT ALOFT
EARLY ON. THE SFC BASED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. AT H8...THE WARM FRONT IS ACROSS NE
LOWER WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WAA RAINS LOOKING TO BE
LINGERING OVER FAR NE LOWER/DRUMMOND ISLAND...MAYBE JUST EAST OF
US. CAN FORESEE SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD/GRUNGE HERE WHILE
ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING IN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS FRONT...KEEPING SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NE
CWA. MEANWHILE...SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION
SOUTH...DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF FRONTAL POSITIONS...LOOKING TO
SPIKE TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 60S/70F. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THESE READINGS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE FAR NE CWA
FROM SSM THROUGH ALPENA/OSCODA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY FOR THESE COOLER
TEMPS...AS AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE TO BRING IN COLDER LAKE
HURON AIR. THE INCREASED MID/UPPER CLOUD WILL BE OFFERED BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING IN OVER MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
ENERGY EMANATES FROM POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTING/CLOSING OFF
SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY STILL
LOOKING TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 35-45KT H8 LLJ...FOCUSING MAX
WAA/MOISTURE/THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA (DETAILS CAN STILL DEFINITELY CHANGE...IT`S
CONVECTION). THIS COINCIDES WITH ANTICIPATED 70-80KT JETLET AND
POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH MUCAPES 1000+J/KG. TIMING AND
POSITION OF FEATURES...AGAIN...TO BE REFINED IN TIME...BUT SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT...WITH TRENDS
SUGGESTING THAT NRN LOWER COULD BE MORE IN THE LINE OF FIRE. HIGH
WET BULBS 10-12KFT WITH 45-50KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 7.5C/KM (EML PLUME) ARE THE EARLY LOOKS...AND
HAIL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE...BUT SEVERE STORMS TO A LESSER
DEGREE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH. LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE
WARM/MILD...BUT A HUGE TEMP GRADIENT POSSIBLE. IN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NE...LOWS MAYBE DROPPING AS FAR AS THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S
(FROM THE MIDDLE 50S DAYTIME HIGHS)...TO THE VERY MILD LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE GTV BAY AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORNING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING...AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA...BUT COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE CROSSING US. NOT MUCH EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT A SMALL CHANCE AT A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...UNTIL
IT PASSES BY MIDDAY. DRIER AIR FILLS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR IS NOT MUCH
COOLER EITHER...AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S COMING IN OFF
THE WATER VIA WEST WINDS...TO AS WARM AS NEAR 80F IN DOWNSLOPING
REGIONS ACROSS NE LOWER. THIS IS A SNEAKY FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO AS
THE COOLING ISN`T HARDLY ANYTHING...AND HUMIDITIES TANK UNDER THE
DRIER FLOW AND NICELY MIXED BL. AM EXPECTING HUMIDITIES TO
APPROACH THE UPPER HALF OF THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WILL MENTION
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO...ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE DETAIL
ON THE HAIL THREAT FOR THE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ITSELF
IS NOW AGREED TO SLIP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR NO CHANCE AT
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS DUE TO
SHARPER UPPER TROUGHING SLATED TO SINK INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
COOLISH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......THE SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LESS WIND AND
INVADING HIGHER PRESSURE WHICH SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH THEN WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NEXT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGH EMANATING FROM
THE ROCKIES. QUESTIONS SURROUND THE EASTWARD SPEED OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING
LIFT/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN THE
60S OVER THIS TIME. WE`LL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRIER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN TODAY
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED. MAYBE A BRIEF 1-2 HR PERIOD OF
STRATO CU BLOSSOMING OVER APN (LOW CONFIDENCE...VFR ANYWAY) BUT
CONTINUED DRYING AND MIXING INTO DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
A PRETTY SUNNY DAY. HIGH CLOUDS DO START TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH EVENTUAL SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK. AIR MASS IS AWFULLY DRY BELOW
800MB...AND NO MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED ATTM.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW WITH EARLY GUSTS TO 15-18KTS
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY/TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR MAINLY MBL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

AFTER A WINDY WRAP UP TO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH MUCH LIGHTER WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...PERHAPS UP TO 15 KNOTS IN SPOTS AT TIMES. A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS MAY ARRIVE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS
A SURGE OF WARMER AIR RIDES IN ALOFT...BUT RATHER NEUTRAL OVER-WATER
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. LOOKING INTO MIDWEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THAT FEATURE...BEFORE
LIGHTER WINDS MAKE A RETURN BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...SD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...DL