Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241749
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1249 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Sfc low is moving across nrn IL late this morning with a warm
front about to move into far srn lower Michigan. One shortwave
working with good upper level divergence and deep layer WAA has
produced a good round of a wintry mix, which was exiting NE lower
and eastern upper. Deep moisture has stripped out aloft back
behind this precipitation and now we are transitioning over to
more of a drizzle/freezing drizzle scenario, the freezing stuff to
be located more so across far NW lower and eastern upper.

Question for this afternoon is, will we get some deeper convection
to fire off across the region. Main upper trough axis is going to
throw some additional weaker vorticity up our way, and latest WV
imagery shows some deeper moisture back across srn Wisconsin, and
even deeper moisture from srn IL into SE MO which will be part of
expected showers and storms well south of us. Thinking that the
better potential for showers/higher QPF will be across our SE CWA
within low level convergence and better upper divergence. Also,
possibly far western sections of CHIP/Mack counties of eastern
upper. There, expected additional low level convergence sets up
as the deeper moisture from srn WI lifts north, and where
better WAA and possible FGEN forcing will lay out. This should
take place later this afternoon.

Precip type will continue to transition over to more liquid from
SE to NW...with only NW sections of Chip/Mack seeing snow all day.

Will be gradually peeling south and eastern counties out of the
advisory over the next hour.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Accumulating snow...mixed precip and thunder...

High Impact Weather Potential...Accumulating snow and mixed precip
causing hazardous travel...along with a chance of thunder.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep low pressure center has reached
Missouri early this morning with a cut-off upper low over the
Central Plains. Deep moisture continues to surge northward ahead of
this system into the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes
region feeding into an area of strengthening deformation and upper
level divergence ahead of the upper low. So far...majority of precip
has been of the frozen variety across our CWA...with the exception
of some mixed precip in our far SE CWA where the warm nose is
already beginning to take shape per model soundings. All Southern
Lower Michigan obs are reporting all rain...with both obs and radar
data over Southern Wisconsin indicating some mixed precip occurring
attm.

Low pressure center will continue to lift NE out of Missouri...thru
Illinois today and into Southern Lower Michigan by this evening...
finally reaching Lake Huron by late tonight. Warm moist air will
continue to surge northward thru Michigan ahead of this system as
lift via deformation and upper divergence further strengthens.
Developing warm nose aloft will lead to the expansion of an area of
mixed precip (sleet and freezing rain) across Northern Lower
Michigan this morning...which will lift further north into the tip
of the Mitt and Eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon. Surface temps
will gradually warm to above freezing south of this area...switching
mixed precip over to all rain as it does so. Strengthening
instability will lend to a chance of thunder just about anywhere
across Lower Michigan...especially within areas that have switched
over to plain rain and convection becomes more upright.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Potential new snowfall and ice amounts
are the main forecast issues thru tonight. Short term models have
leaned just a bit colder which might argue for more snow.
However...with temps quickly rising back to and above freezing
during the morning...expect snowfall will continue to be rather wet.
Still expect new snow amounts will fall within advisory
criteria...as will potential ice amounts from the expected period of
sleet and freezing rain...occurrence of which should be transient as
low level warm air makes steady northward progress thru today. New
snow amounts today will be a general 1-3 inches with highest amounts
of 2 to 5 inches across the tip of the Mitt and the Straits area.
Ice accumulations will generally be around a tenth of an inch or
less...most of which should melt this afternoon as temps warm above
freezing across most of Northern Lower Michigan.

Precip will switch back over to mixed this evening as low levels...
including the warm nose aloft...gradually cool once CAA begins on
the backside of the departing low. Precip will switch over to mainly
snow overnight from NW to SE with continued CAA. Expect another inch
or two of new snow tonight...especially across Eastern Upper
Michigan where precip will switch to all snow earlier. Low temps
tonight will range form the mid 20s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the
mid 30s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

...Changeable weather continues...

Saturday through Sunday night...

Saturday...Low pressure continues to track off to our northeast.
Meanwhile...parent upper level low cuts across northern Michigan.
Remnant synoptic moisture in combination with increasing over lake
instability is expected to lead to lake effect/enhanced snow
showers. Accumulations will range from less than an inch southeast
to upwards of three inches or so in west northwest flow favored
areas including Gaylord. Gusty winds will likely lead to blowing and
drifting snow as well. Highs ranging from the middle 20s north to
the middle 30s south.

Saturday night...Lingering west northwest lake effect through the
evening hours with less than an inch accumulation as moisture
decreases and short wave ridging increases. Lows in the middle teens
to middle 20s.

Sunday into Sunday night...An Alberta Clipper zips across the region
bringing mainly light snow to the region (highest pops northwest).
Marginally cold enough for a bit of lake enhancement in west or west
southwest flow favored areas. Over lake instability and moisture
wane Sunday night likely ending any lingering activity. Still a
little far out into the future for exact accumulations but a general
1 to perhaps 3 inches looks like a good first guess. Highs ranging
from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Lows in the upper teens to middle
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Roller coaster ride continues with another
area of low pressure likely moving across or just to the northwest
of the area Tuesday. This would place the region on the warm side of
the system likely leading to snow changing to rain Tuesday. Somewhat
cooler air then follows for later Wednesday into Thursday yielding
chances for mainly light lake effect snow showers (though a weak
clipper may be in the mix too at some point). Highs generally in the
mild middle 30s to middle 40s for Monday through Wednesday then the
upper 20s to lower 30s Thursday. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s,
except for some teens Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Low pressure will track from nrn IL through Lake Huron over the
TAF period. Warm air wrapping into the airports will bring light
rain and drizzle for TVC/MBL/APN this afternoon and into the
evening, while PLN will see snow turn to a wintry mix. Colder air
will then fill into the region through the remainder of the night
and Saturday, changing everything over to snow. The snow will lake
effect Saturday with gusty NW winds developing.

Easterly winds will weaken through evening and become
variable/more northerly before the gusty NW winds develop
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Winds and waves will gradually strengthen to gale warning criteria
today and will continue into tonight as deep low pressure lifts NE
thru Southern Lower Michigan. Widespread precip will beginning as
snow early this morning...switching to mixed precip...then rain
today...and then back over to mixed and eventually snow tonight as
cold air sweeps back into the region in the wake of the departing
low.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 2 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-
     021-025-026-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ008-
     015>019-022>024.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ349.
     GALE WARNING until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323.
     GALE WARNING until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ341-342.
     GALE WARNING until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MLR


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