Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 310637
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
237 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN
RETURN FOR LABOR DAY...ALONG WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAKE A BRIEF RETURN
INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...CLOUDY AND FOGGY START WITH A SUNNY FINISH...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

BROAD OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING NE OF THE SAULT.
THERE IS SOME TRAILING SFC BASED TROUGHING IN WEAKISH PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...IT ISN`T SOMETHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT...AND STRATUS REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
ACROSS THE STRAITS AND NRN LOWER...HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS WITH
SHALLOW COOL ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO THE GROUND MORE
EFFICIENTLY...AND FOG HAS ALSO BEEN COMMON. BOTH STRATUS AND FOG ARE
BOTH INCREASING/EXPANDING IN ALL AREAS...EVEN BACK INTO NRN MN. THE
MAIN SHOW OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE LONG PASSED...BUT DIMINISHING
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TO NO SURPRISE...THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN SOME REPORTED DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...NEXT UPPER TROUGH WAS
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES...WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS AND THROUGH WYOMING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE PREVALENT THERE...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LABOR DAY`S
WEATHER (SEE BELOW).

STILL QUITE MILD OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

BROAD SHORTWAVE WILL EXITS EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN 12-15Z WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON IT`S BACKSIDE CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LINGERING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
GOING TO BE MUCH HARDER TO GET RID OF. WELL...THE FOG WILL BE ABLE
TO LIFT INITIALLY...DUE MAINLY TO SUNRISE. THE STRATUS HOWEVER WILL
HAVE A MIND OF IT`S OWN...REMAINING STUBBORN TO LEAVE. WEAKISH WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A STRENGTHENING/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WON`T WANNA LET THE MOISTURE GO ANYWHERE. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH
SIDE THIS TIME WITH THE IDEA OF CLOUDS NOT BREAKING UP TO MORE
SUNSHINE THAN NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SUN TO COME OUT SOONER ALONG
M-55...FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGHING.

REGARDLESS...CONTINUALLY WORKING ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A
SLOW DRYING IN THE BL...AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
FLAT SHALLOW CU FIELD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL FADE WITH
SUNDOWN.

THE CLEAR SKIES LEAD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER
PRESSURE AND WEAKER/NEAR LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FOG FOR MOST
SINCE WE WILL NOT MIX OUT ALL THAT WELL WITH THAT INVERSION. LOW
LEVEL WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP MIX
UP THE BL TO SOME DEGREE...AND EAT AWAY AT FOG FROM WEST TO EAST BUT
LIKELY NOT GET RID OF FOG ACROSS NE LOWER UNTIL SUNRISE LABOR DAY.

UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SET FOR LABOR DAY REMAINS WELL
WEST...WORKING INTO WISCONSIN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL SPIKE UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER BEING STEADY IN THE 60S FOR THE MORNING.

TEMPS FALLING WELL IN THE EVENING THEN TRYING TO STABILIZE MORE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. BIG RANGE IN LOWS...WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S BEING MOST COMMON. AS WARM AS THE LOWER 60S EXPOSED
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...A TYPICAL EARLY SEPTEMBER PATTERN ON THE WAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY
FOR LABOR DAY...WITH AN OBVIOUS POTENTIAL IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND FESTIVITIES. THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SOMETIME TOWARD
LATE WEEK.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A REALLY CLASSIC LATE SUMMER LOOK TO THE OVERALL
MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF METEOROLOGICAL
AUTUMN...FEATURING BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND A SUBSEQUENT VERY FLAT FLOW REGIME RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER. THAT SETUP WILL FAVOR A FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALSO SEPARATE SOME TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
HEAT/HUMIDITY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE INCREASINGLY COOLER GLANCING BLOWS
OF AIR TRAVERSE MUCH OF CENTRAL AND AT TIMES SOUTHERN CANADA. STUCK
IN BETWEEN...AS WE OFTEN ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COOL/COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT ALSO AT THE MERCY OF ANY BETTER
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW THAT MAY BRIEFLY AMPLIFY UPPER
HEIGHTS AND DELIVER SOME LATE SEASON HEAT EVEN UP THIS FAR NORTH.
THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR LABOR DAY AND AGAIN SOMETIME TOWARD
FRIDAY...WITH AN OTHERWISE FAIRLY TRANQUIL FORECAST FORESEEN IN
BETWEEN.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

LABOR DAY-MONDAY NIGHT: BIGGEST PERIOD OF INTEREST GIVEN LOTS OF
SUMMERTIME WRAP-UP ACTIVITIES ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A
FAIRLY HEALTHY UPPER TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES...SENDING HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER OUR AREA AND ALSO HELPING PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY LATE EVENING. THE TIMING OF SAID FRONT AND THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS HAS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS THE LAST 24 HOURS...SUCH
THAT IT APPEARS MANY MORNING ACTIVITIES MAY BE SPARED ANY BIG TIME
RAIN CHANCES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD HEATING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP DIURNAL MIXING INTO
BUILDING THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT (H8 TEMPS PEAKING AROUND
16-18C)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS PEAKING WELL INTO
THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S...PARTICULARLY FOR THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
AREAS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST LOWER.

THROW IN INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S AND H8 VALUES UP AROUND
14C...AND SOME PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD WITH TIME. A
STEEPER 850-700MB LAPSE RATE PLUME ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
LOWER LAKES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE POSSIBLE PROVIDED WE CAN REALIZE HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S
(ALWAYS AN IFFY PROSPECT THIS FAR NORTH). WITH A NICE CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED SHEAR WORKING OUT JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED
JET DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY...STILL GET THE FEELING THAT A SEVERE
STORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP...WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY
ORGANIZING IS IT WORKS EASTWARD. CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND THOSE SPOTS SHOULD HAVE THE
BEST HEATING AND UNIMPEDED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS SOME DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE LATE
DAY OR EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE
EVEN UP THIS WAY.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
THAT TIMING LOOKS JUST A BIT DELAYED FROM EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. THE
CULPRIT IS A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD
CENTRAL LOWER OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING. COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...SUSPECT SOME SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER) MAY PLAGUE AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z IF NOT EVEN A BIT LONGER. BY FAR THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: AS ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...JUST NOT FEELING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY MIDWEEK RAIN CHANCES AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
RESIDES ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF FLAT SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGING...
WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO
THE EASTERN LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY. THAT PATTERN SHOULD DELIVER
SHARPLY DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS BACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN LAKES IN STRONGER RETURN FLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN...AND SHOULD BE LOOKING AT DOWNRIGHT
COMFORTABLE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TUE/WED...WITH
A TOUCH MORE HEAT BY THURSDAY AS THERMAL RIDGING POKES ITS HEAD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: CONFIDENCE STILL NOT EXACTLY HIGH INTO LATE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE BASIC GIST IS FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION. TIMING OF THAT FEATURE HIGHLY IN QUESTION...AND
THAT WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON FRIDAY OR A QUICK INRUSH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR THAT IS
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND ADVERTISE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES
SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IFR CIGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE SAULT...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO
SW QUEBEC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER MI.  STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY EXPAND BEHIND
THIS FRONT...AND IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
BEGIN LATE IN THE MORNING.

LIGHT W TO NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING EAST AND WNW WINDS ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME
AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRESSURE NEARS...AND SETTLES IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SET FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NW LOWER
MICHIGAN COAST. OTHERWISE...STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
THINGS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.

RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD






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