000
FXUS63 KAPX 132330
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers return tonight. Perhaps a rumble of thunder?

- Mild temperatures expected Sunday into mid next week.

- Chance for rain late Tuesday into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

A period of transition, with yesterday`s exceptionally windy and wet
system now well to our northeast...replaced by surface high pressure
across the Great Lakes. This has resulted in plenty of sunshine and
a bit milder conditions across the region, with temperatures running
well within the range of what is considered normal for the middle of
April. Increasing clouds noted just upstream, associated with modest
moisture advection regime ahead of weak low pressure and its
attendant warm front moving east across the northern Plains.

Focus for tonight will be on that upstream wave as it continues to
race east, expected to be centered right across our area by sunrise
Sunday. Plume of modest elevated instability and low/mid level
moisture convergence will run in lock-step with this wave, bringing
additional shower chances to at least parts of the Northwoods this
evening into the overnight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Focus center on shower evolution and embedded thunder potential
tonight.

Details:

Pattern recognition supports convective allowing guidances
depictions of an expanding and fast moving area of showers racing
east/southeast into the area this evening and overnight. Focus for
shower development will be that earlier mentioned elevated
instability plume/moisture advection interacting with an overhead
tightening thermal gradient as that wave approaches. Pretty
impressive low level jet (in excess of 40 knots) will help drive
this convergence axis, further supporting shower generation along
the thermal gradient. Main corridor of elevated instability remains
south of M-32 across northern lower Michigan...and this is where
best chance for a few well elevated thunderstorms will reside. Lack
of deeper instability will precluded a severe threat, although
suppose with relatively cool sub-cloud conditions a few small
hailstones (pea size and smaller) will be possible with any more
organized updrafts. Lows tonight ranging from the middle 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc low pressure system will eject east on Sunday, along with upper
level energy to the north. Thus, precip will wane with mild
afternoon breezes. Heights begin to rise out ahead of the next upper
level low pressure system for the middle of this week, thus
temperatures will be mild through mid week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Sfc low pressure system will move eastward into Sunday, resulting in
drier and mildly breezy conditions. Temperatures will rise as well,
with values in the 60s. High pressure remains in control through
Tuesday, with ridging aloft building across the region out ahead of
the next weather system for mid week. Thus, temperatures are
expected to remain in the 60s through Tuesday (Wednesday as well) as
winds shift around to the southeast along with increasing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Warm, moist advection begins Tuesday night as upper low and sfc low
lift towards the Great Lakes Region. Deterministic guidance
seems fairly confident on upper low tracking through the heart
of northern MI Tues night into Wed night along with most
ensemble members, although still some spread to the W/NW of the
region in regards to the sfc low track. Consequently, waves of
rain, and potential embedded thundershowers, will be possible
across N MI. Instability looks rather meager for our region at
this time so not expecting an organized severe threat unless the
reservoir of modest instability in the vicinity of Detroit
advects northward. Winds will pick up and increase out ahead of
this upper level and subsequent sfc low pressure system, with
breezy to windy conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
Colder temperatures expected late week into next weekend as a
larger, colder upper low begins to influence the Great Lakes
Region. Consequent of this, there is a potential for some snow
showers as cooler northwest flow slides over the open lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Some SHRA tonight. Lower cigs late tonight into Sunday CIU/PLN.

A fast-moving system will push showers ese-ward in the northern
Great Lakes. Sprinkles in northern areas will give way to one
or more rounds of SHRA, especially in central and northern
areas. MBL has the best chance to escape precip, while
CIU/PLN/APN are the most likely to see precip. This will
eventually lower cigs, with PLN MVFR for part of late
tonight/Sun morning, and CIU perhaps going IFR.

A period of se to s winds late tonight, gives way to breezy nw
winds later on Sunday. LLWS for part of tonight TVC/MBL.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to subside, ending all remaining advisory
conditions across our big waters later this afternoon. Current
trends support sub-advisory conditions persisting through Monday.
May see a few thunderstorms tonight, but not expecting any
significant winds with these storms.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB