Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 121959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL CYCLE SEVERAL
WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LAST
WAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH AS
THIS LOW MOVES EAST...AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
NO SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE M-32
CORRIDOR.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEAKENING/ELONGATING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...STUBBY WARM FRONT LOOPS EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IOWA THEN
SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS.  SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LEAD ONE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH THE TRAILING FEATURE JUST CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA.  SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF HEATING...BEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER
HEADING TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SPOTTY RETURNS NOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR FROM GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY TO THUNDER BAY.  ALSO GETTING A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE NEAR GRAND MARAIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT: WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...WATCHING A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL INCREASING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT JET STREAK NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  GOES SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AXIS OF >40MM VALUES INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EAST AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING CELLS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WHILE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR DOWNSTATE (POSSIBLE MCS
ACTIVITY)...DO LIKE THE IDEA OF 0.50+ INCH RAIN TOTALS SOUTH OF THE
M-72 CORRIDOR.  MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL AS YOU GET NORTH OF THE
STRAITS TONIGHT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...MAY LEAVE BEHIND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY END UP BEING WARMER THAN SOME OF THE HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAINLY 60S EXPECTED).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...WARM SUNDAY THEN MUCH COOLER INTO MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: VERY LOW...EXCEPT FOR ANNOYINGLY COOL
TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST TO WARM WEATHER LOVERS).

ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR SUNDAY THEN COOLING OFF A BIT MONDAY BEFORE THE
WELL ADVERTISED REALLY COOL DOWN ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO START OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND THE TIMING IS NOT
OPTIMAL FROM AN INSTABILITY STANDPOINT SO ONLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY LEADING TO HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST WHILE THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...DIGGING TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS IN MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ROBUST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL SEND AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING SO POP FORECAST FOR MONDAY
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A
CERTAINTY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND ONLY THE
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY (CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY
AVERAGES IN MOST CASES).

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
FEW INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER). NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT WELL TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A STRETCH OF RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS. HIGHS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THURSDAY TO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY.

&&

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
TO INDUCE LAKE INDUCED COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE STRAITS HEADING THROUGH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/BRIEF GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO
INDUCE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE BIG WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS SLOWLY VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE
REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JPB
MARINE...JPB





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