Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301046 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL WEATHER TODAY GIVES WAY TO A QUICK RETURN
TO MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER RETURN
THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MILD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY GIVE WAY
TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...DAMP AND COOL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CARVING ITSELF INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SHARP RIDGING TO IT/S WEST AS PREVIOUS
SOUTHWESTERN US CUTOFF HAS BEEN KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE SHORTWAVE NOW TO OUR SOUTH HAS USHERED IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY FROM 850 MB AND BELOW
WITH THE 00Z APX RAOB SHOWING A NICE DRIZZLE PROFILE WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT CAPPED BY A MODEST SHEAR LAYER.  1024 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.  GIVEN THIS POSITION AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW /REFLECTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ DROPPING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN LLEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LLEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST.  PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD CENTER ON CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TRENDS AS MOISTURE STUCK BENEATH
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMISE TO BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR
OUT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LAKE STREAMERS NOTED ON APX 88D REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS THIS MORNING SHOWING THE LLEVEL MOISTURE IS GETTING A BOOST
FROM THE LAKES WITH CORE OF H8 COLD POOL /TEMPS NEAR 0C AT THIS
LEVEL/ NEARLY OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO WORD THE FORECAST AS
DRIZZLE /AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION FOG/ THROUGH DAYBREAK THOUGH A
FEW RAINDROPS APPEAR LIKELY...PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.  TEMPERATES HOLDING IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S.

TODAY: MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUING AS LLEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. DRIZZLE WILL CERTAINLY
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THEY DAY GOES ON...WITH LAKE HELP WEAKENING AS
LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SOMEWHAT. THIS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL AND A LITTLE BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
DUE TO /LIMITED/ DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING ANY REMAINING DRIZZLE
TO AN END BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LITTLE HOPE OF ANY SUN EXCEPT
PERHAPS OVER EASTERN UPPER AS DRIER AIR EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ATTEMPTS TO BLEED INTO THIS AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

TEMPERATURES: WON/T MOVE MUCH TODAY UNDER THE AMPLE CLOUDINESS.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...WITH A FEW
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS IN NORTHERN LOWER LIKELY TO STRUGGLE
MUCH ABOVE 50.

TONIGHT: MOISTURE THINS SOMEWHAT...BUT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
CONTINUED STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LLEVEL FLOW
VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BRING THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS MANISTEE AS DEEPER MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE RE-FORM
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE DRIZZLE WORDING FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. WILL NOT ADD FOG MENTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IF ANY MORE CLEARING IS REALIZED THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE A THREAT.

TEMPERATURES: WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S THROUGHOUT
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...TRENDING MUCH MORE FALL-LIKE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING EXTREME. STILL MONITORING
GALE POTENTIAL FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: A TRANSITION PERIOD INDEED.
PROGRESSIVE...AGGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
STRONG HINTS OF EVOLUTION TO A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL PATTERN
HEADING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THE FORMER LOOKS TO
BRING TYPICAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER POTENTIAL...THE LATTER WILL PLUNGE US FULL BORE INTO THE
COLDER SIDE OF THINGS...ITSELF BRINGING ITS OWN SHOWER POTENTIAL.
JUST YOUR TRADITIONAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER.
ENJOY!

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: PLENTY...BASICALLY THE FULL
RANGE OF WEATHER ELEMENTS (MINUS THE SNOW...FOR NOW :)).

DETAILS: A QUIET START...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN STUCK SQUARELY UNDER
APEX OF MID LEVEL RIDGING WEDNESDAY. A DAY STILL WITH ISSUES
HOWEVER...MOST SPECIFICALLY CENTERED AROUND LOW CLOUD CONCERNS AND
ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE TRENDS. STOUT H8 SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS
TO CONTINUE TO TRAP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
MORNING...SUPPORTING STRATUS AND EVEN SOME EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL. NOT EVEN SURE IF DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO MIX THINGS OUT...FURTHER COMPLICATED BY LOWER SUN
ANGLE. EXPECTING A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY START...TRENDING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (STAYING OPTIMISTIC). MIXING UP TO H8
SUPPORTS INHERITED HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WILL STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAY KEEP THINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTY COMING TOGETHER TO DRIVE A WET
PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FORCING LOOKING
RATHER APPRECIABLE...WITH STRONG ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
AUGMENTED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL SUPPORT FROM APPROACHING CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGHING (ITSELF EMBEDDED WITH VARIOUS WAVES)...WITH DOWN
LOW RESPONSE TIED TO STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE SUPPLY
DEFINITELY THERE...WITH FOCUSED WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FEED UPPING
PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL IN EXCESS OF 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE
BREADTH OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT THUNDER
POTENTIAL..."WARM" MID LEVELS/INSIGNIFICANT H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SAY
OTHERWISE. SUPPOSE SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE JUST
NOT THERE TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE FORECAST...OR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THAT MATTER. TIMING OF MAIN SHOWER
THREAT STILL A TOUCH UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH USUALLY SLOWER IS BETTER
DURING SUCH AMPLIFICATION PROCESSES...WHICH FITS INHERITED AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT LIKELY POPS.

WHILE EXACT SPECIFICS REMAIN ELUDING WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL WAVE
TIMING...MID RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEEP TROUGHING
AND ATTENDANT COLD AIR PLUNGE OVERSPREADS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT (H5 TEMPS <-20C) AND
INCREASING LAKE PROCESSES (H8 TEMPS FALLING TO SUB 0C LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND) SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...NOT TO MENTION POSSIBLE DEEP LAYER SUPPORT VIA PASSING
WAVES. INCREASINGLY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS/HEALTHY CONVECTION UP
THROUGH VERY COLD MID LEVELS...DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SOME GRAUPEL
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES GOING NOWHERE BUT DOWN AFTER THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY STUCK IN THE 50S. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS HAVE ALLUDED TO...MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAY PREVENT SOME INLAND AREAS FROM
EVEN REACHING 50 DEGREES. ALWAYS AMAZING HOW ABRUPTLY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WEATHER CAN CHANGE!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...GENERALLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...KEEPING
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE FLOW
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR AS OF THIS WRITING /IFR CIGS AT APN
AND NEARLY SO AT PLN-TVC/ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BASED ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS AND MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WILL OPTIMISTICALLY BRING PLN/TVC/MBL TO VFR FOR
A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE MVFR STRATUS RE-
SOLIDIFIES AND CONTINUES TONIGHT. SOME VIS REDUCTIONS LIKELY
TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IF WE CAN REALIZE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS.

WINDS:  NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...WINDS DIMINISHING TODAY...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE MARINE WATERS.  WINDS
WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN
FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS OVER LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WINDS/WAVES GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.  BEYOND THIS...HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BEFORE AN EXTENDED PERIOD PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFTS AND POTENTIAL GALES ARRIVES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS: NO THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT





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