Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 022313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
713 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD.
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 8-15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR


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