000
FXUS63 KAPX 191410
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1010 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/snow chances return this afternoon and evening, with the
  potential for graupel to mix in with any heavier showers.

- Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday.

- Next chance of precipitation returns Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Just some relatively minor spatial and temporal tweaks to sky
cover this morning into this afternoon with currently more
clouds across the eastern UP, tip of the mitt, north-central
and northeast lower. Plentiful sun near the Grand Traverse Bay
region. Some shower development still expected this afternoon,
primarily north of the bridge. For further details, please see
the short-term forecast section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified troughing centered over southern Canada/Upper Midwest will
progress eastward, working over the Great Lakes this afternoon
through tonight. The associated surface cyclone currently over
Ontario will trek northeast across James Bay/northern Quebec in
conjunction with favorable forcing aloft. An attendant cold front
pushing across the area will also depart east this morning.

Forecast Details:

Light showers ongoing across parts of the area associated with the
aforementioned front are expected to diminish over the next few
hours, leaving quiet weather in place for areas south of the bridge
for most of today. Dry air filtering in behind the front will lead
to partly to mostly sunny skies for northern lower through this
afternoon, whereas better low-level moisture in closer proximity to
the surface low will keep more cloud cover in place and support
scattered showers across eastern upper beginning this afternoon.
Chances for showers across northern lower look to hold off until
this evening.

Relatively steep lapse rates and increasing saturation up to around
700mb amidst support aloft will help develop some more robust
showers. With these steep lapse rates and potential for deeper
showers, graupel will be possible with activity tomorrow afternoon
through tonight. Surface temperatures near freezing underneath
falling precip will also likely lead to snow mixing in -- especially
tonight with the arrival of coolest temperatures. High confidence
exists in any snow accumulations being limited to a dusting/a quick
few tenths at most. The primary impact from any snowfall may be
quick drops in visibility as showers move overhead. As the previous
forecaster expressed, there is still uncertainty in how far
southeast to take precip chances across the area due to drier low-
level air with extent in that direction away from Lake Michigan.
Best chances will come across northwest lower with lesser chances
further inland.

Otherwise, highs in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store this
afternoon with lows dipping into the low 30s for most areas tonight.
Temperatures will feel cooler during the day with breezy west winds
gusting to 25-35 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale closed low pressure over Central Canada
continues to push cooler than average temperatures into the Great
Lakes region. Midlevel ridging currently over the Northwest
Territories with upstream troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will
support slow moving midlevel flow for the majority of the long term
forecast period keeping a mainly quiet weather pattern for the next
several days.

Aformentioned troughing will slowly pivot across Canada and settle
over Hudson Bay by Saturday. Non impactful weather is expected for
the entirety of the forecast period, but embedded height
disturbances will keep chances of precipitation Saturday morning and
again in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a midlevel
shortwave progresses through the Great Lakes region.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday. Next chance of
precipitation returns Tuesday: Saturday morning will start off cool,
with temperatures around freezing for most areas and H8 temperatures
around -8 to -10 degrees. Lingering moisture along with breezy WNW
flow will continue snow showers with rain mixing in until the
afternoon hours. Little to no QPF is expected but minor
accumulations could result in a general dusting for typical snowbelt
locations of northern lower and eastern upper on Saturday.

Conditions dry Saturday evening and remain quiet Sunday and Monday
until a shortwave trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska makes its
way to the Great lakes region by Tuesday. Current guidance depicts
the system weakening as it progresses across the country. Still a
bit too far out to message details such as QPF or even P-type, but
chances of active weather continues to increase for the region next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGs/VSBYs may linger for another hour or two after 12Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated across all sites through
the vast majority of the issuance period. Cloud cover will continue
to clear behind a front sliding across the area, leading to
partly/mostly sunny skies across the northern lower peninsula
through this afternoon. West winds will increase through the
morning, reaching speeds of 10-15kts with gusts to 25-30 kts at
times this afternoon and evening. Scattered rain/snow showers look
to return to the eastern U.P. this afternoon and continue into
tonight. MVFR CIGs may also move back into CIU at the end of the
period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJG
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC