Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High impact weather potential: None

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Rather chilly northerly flow continues across the Great Lakes this
afternoon on upstream side of deepening northeast conus low
pressure. Overall surface pattern changes little through Saturday as
northeast low further deepens, all-the-while weak and elongated
ridging attempts to build into the northern Lakes. A touch more
aggressive change aloft anticipated, especially on Saturday, with
steadily building mid level heights as core of negative height
anomalies pushes off to the east.

Primary forecast concerns:

Nothing too significant for sure through Saturday...with focus
centered on cloud (and associated temperature trends) as well as
addressing lingering light lake induced shower concerns this


As mentioned, only subtle large scale changes heading through
tonight. Northern flow does weaken/become a touch disorganized as
surface ridging slowly increases its influence. Lower level
environment remains plenty cold enough to entice a descent lake
response, although drying of an ever shrinking boundary layer and
those increasingly disorganized winds sure say otherwise. Now, with
that said (and a painful lesson learned over the years) is that lake
processes tend to hold on longer than anticipated. Will lean on this
experience, keeping at least some threat for light northerly flow
lake showers into the first several hours this evening. Trends
should be drier overnight as negatives mentioned above take their
collective toll (yup...have said that before). Sounding and cross
section moisture analysis even suggests some aggressive inland
clearing, with even lake clouds scattering out some along the
coastlines later tonight. This does set the stage for some rather
cold overnight lows, especially across those much clearer interior
areas. Will trend several degrees colder, placing much of those
traditional ice box locations into the upper 20s. Of course, would
not be at all surprised too see a few "luckier" locations end up
several degrees colder by morning.

Interesting cloud forecast in what should be an otherwise dry and
uneventful start to the weekend. Center of surface ridge remains
just off to the west, with light northwest flow slowly backing
through the day. Despite development of waa, low levels continue to
remain cold enough to entice some lake moisture contribution. Expect
what lake clouds there are to advance inland, likely experiencing a
diurnal contribution during the later morning and early afternoon.
Definitely not a big deal, but could see more clouds than sun until
later in the afternoon when moisture profiles further thin and lake
contribution is lost. Temperatures will be kinda similar to those
experienced today, with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Saturday night through Monday...

A rex block sets up to our north which allows for a low amplitude
trough to undercut it and move across northern Michigan later
Sunday. This scenario should lead to mild conditions out ahead of
the trough Sunday followed by seasonably cool air to seep in from
the north behind it. There could even be a few rain showers Sunday
afternoon and evening with the trough followed by the chance for
northwesterly flow lake effect rain showers Monday (though the
airmass looks rather dry). Highs Sunday in the middle to upper 50s
and the upper 40s to lower 50s Monday. Lows for both Saturday and
Sunday nights in the middle 30s to lower 40s.


Extended (Monday night through Friday) issued at 300 PM EST FRI Oct
21 2016

Weak ridging over the rockies in the 500mb pattern flattens out by
Wednesday and quickly develops into troughing over the Great Lakes
for Thursday and Friday. At the same time...a surface low develops over
the central plains and deepens as it sets aim on Michigan. Most
models and blended solutions are in agreement with rain chances
overspreading the CWA on Wednesday...and sticking around until
Thursday evening. Chance pops will remain on Friday...mopping up
any residual moisture and/or lake contributing issues.
Temperatures this run are just a bit cooler than previous couple
days...just a tad under climo.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mainly VFR lake driven stcu expected at the taf sites into
tonight, with perhaps brief periods of MVFR cigs. Same story
heading into Saturday, with some breaks at times expected in the
overcast by later tonight into Saturday morning. Mostly light
north to northwest winds will continue.


Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Still some lingering gusty north winds expected into early
this evening, particularly along the coast of northeast lower
Michigan. Really, not a whole lot of change in the pressure gradient
regime driving these winds across Lake Huron through Saturday. Winds
do slowly back more northwest with time, but look to remain a bit
gusty...with perhaps a brief lull overnight before picking up again
on Saturday. Will make a last second call, but may just go ahead and
extend current SCA`s on Lake Huron right through Saturday. Winds
look to remain a touch less aggressive and below SCA criteria across
the remainder of the big waters. Winds subside across all waters
Saturday night and Sunday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ348-



LONG TERM...Sullivan/KAB
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