Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 160237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR NRN LWR MICHIGAN A
FEW HOURS EARLY AS VIRTUALLY ALL VSBYS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
ARE NOW WELL ABOVE ONE QUARTER OF A MILE THANKS TO INCREASING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT DO EXPECT VSBYS WILL IMPROVE EVEN
IN THIS REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

...SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUPY AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUED POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN/I-75 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1000MB LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER...TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD A 2-3MB/3H PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER EASTERN IOWA.  INVERTED
TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  COMPACT
UPPER LOW CO-LOCATED WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION...A BAND OF RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...FOG STILL DENSE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.  THERE IS CLEARING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE RAIN BAND MOVING NORTHWARD.

SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE
QUAD CITIES THIS EVENING...AND ON TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
BY TUESDAY MORNING.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MEASURABLE RAIN MOVING IN TONIGHT...
CONTINUED LOW VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS DUE TO PERSISTENT FOG.

TONIGHT: BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND ALONG AN AXIS OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON AS FORCING AND WEAKER STATIC STABILITY SWING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.30 INCH
EXPECTED TONIGHT.  AS FOR THE FOG ISSUE...THE HILLTOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE THE WORST AREAS BELOW THE BRIDGE WITH
THE I-75 CORRIDOR HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN (OGEMAW COUNTY
NORTHWARD) A BIG CONCERN.  VISIBILITY OUT OUR WINDOW HERE AT THE
OFFICE HASN`T IMPROVED MUCH AT ALL THROUGH THE DAY.  MORE WIDESPREAD
SOCKED-IN CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE VISIBILITIES STILL
AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE. WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE WITH ONSET OF RAINFALL...AS SMALLER CLOUD
DROPLETS ARE SCAVENGED OUT BY PRECIPITATION.  BUT THIS IS GOING TO
TAKE A WHILE...SO THE PLAN IS TO EXTEND THE EASTERN UPPER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IF WE CAN TAKE IT DOWN EARLY AT SOME
POINT THAT`LL BE A BONUS.  THE NORTHERN LOWER COUNTIES STILL
REMAINING (I-75 CORRIDOR FROM OGEMAW TO OTSEGO COUNTY) WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE AS RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WELL DEFINED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS NOAM...WITH WELL
DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PINWHEELING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
CORN BELT...ALL-THE-WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS
CUTTING ACROSS MANITOBA. THE FORMER OF WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LATTER BRINGING A RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL MID-
DECEMBER WEATHER HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER
LATER TUESDAY AND DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS: PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD TO START TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN LAKES. FORCING REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED...SO
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. POST SYSTEM CAA
CONTINUES TO LOOK DELAYED (AS OFTEN IS THE CASE)...SO WILL CONTINUE
TREND SET FORTH BY OVERNIGHT FORECASTER FOR A LATER WEST/EAST
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 REMAINING
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
LATE CHANGEOVER AND MAINTENANCE OF ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
EXPECTED TO CUT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT COOLING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE...COMPLETING THE
CHANGEOVER PROCESS BY LATER IN THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH PROLONGED
DEFORMATION/SURFACE TROUGH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOWS
EXPECTED. STRONGEST OFF THE DECK COOLING OCCURS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE AT NIGHT...THE SAME LOCATION WHERE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WILL INTRUDE. THUS...LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COOLING WILL BE
DELAYED THE LONGEST. SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF SYNOPTIC SNOWS AND SOME
MINIMAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION OFF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION FOR NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. REALLY THE SAME TREND CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE DOES ROTATE BACK SOUTH ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE AND
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW DOES ARGUE FOR SOME APPRECIABLE LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS...PERUSAL OF THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS AND SIMILAR SOUNDING
ANALYSIS SAY OTHERWISE...SHOWING SUB 5KFT INVERSION LEVELS AND
MINIMAL LAKE INDUCED OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ. THESE SHOULD KEEP
SNOWFALL INTENSITY IN CHECK...WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN FAVORED NW TO NNW FLOW AREAS.

TROUGHING AND MOISTURE STEADILY DEPART HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE SNOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AS
DEEP LAYER DRYING DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES: STILL RELATIVELY MILD TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL THEREAFTER...WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MUCH MORE SEASONAL LIKE IN THE 20S AND LOWER
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
CONTROLLING OUR RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO DOMINATE.

TOWARD THE END OF THIS TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE DECREASES
REGARDING THE TRACK...SPEED AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AT LEAST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING THRU LWR MICHIGAN. STUBBORN STRATUS AND FOG WILL HOLD OVER
THE AREA DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...KEEPING OVERALL
CONDITIONS IFR THRU TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM OUTSIDE OF POOR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TAKE ON
MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MORE OF A NORTH/NORTHEAST
COMPONENT LATER TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS. MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITHIN NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-015.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB



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