Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 211645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INDIANA/
OHIO/KENTUCKY BORDER...STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG
STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE SPILLING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HEADING SOUTHEAST.  LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...12Z APX
SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 800MB/-20C.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
BACKING THROUGH THE MORNING PER KAPX VWP...NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH 5K FEET AGL EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE LOWEST GATE.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AWAY FROM EASTERN UPPER.  MUCH
DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM PER 12Z RAOBS (850MB DEW POINTS
-28C MPX/-33C GRB/-43C INL).

BACKING WINDS/ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR/LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...ALL SHOULD COMBINE TO
ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS...OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. LLWS POSSIBLE AT APN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT /GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE/...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z AT TVC/MBL.

W WINDS WILL BACK SW TODAY. INCREASING SW WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20KTS LATE AT MBL. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AT APN TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...SO LLWS A
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR


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