Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 121808
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
208 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME WET
SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

BATCH OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY AND
BETTER CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY HANGING OVER THE LOWER LAKES.
NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER JET FORCED F-GEN BAND PUSHING UP THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT. SURE LOOKING LIKE THE M-32 CORRIDOR IS GONNA
GET ROBBED ONCE AGAIN OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SUBTLE
HINT OF AN EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE WAVE AND ENHANCED PRECIP BACK
NEAR GRB THAT IS TRENDING TO A MORE E/ENE TRACK. IT THAT
HOLDS...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY ULTIMATELY EXPAND/FILL IN OVER
ALL THE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW AND SEE HOW IT GOES.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT/RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TYPICAL WHEN YOU/RE DEALING
WITH CONVECTION. BUT AFTER THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP... SW-NE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS NOSES UP ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AGAIN...BIG
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT DETAILS. SO...NOT PLANNING ON BEING
VERY CUTE WITH THE DETAILS AND HAVE GENERIC CATEGORICAL SHOWERS
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CHANCE OF THUNDER SOUTH OF THE STRAITS
WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS SPREADING UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...VERY WET PATTERN FOR A FEW DAYS...

SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH FLOW IN THE PROCESS OF BUCKLING
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS POTENT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
DIVING INTO THE PAC NW. THAT FEATURE EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A
DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER
CORE OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD THROUGH CHICAGO
AND INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK NRN STREAM FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA. RESULTING TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SITS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 110+ KNOT JET CORE PUNCHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
NARROW CORRIDOR OF JET RELATED PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/NRN WISCONSIN AND NOSING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BATCH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP FROM SE MINNESOTA ACROSS
WISCONSIN WHERE SHARP THETA-E AXIS IS GETTING SHOVED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND WHERE AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE
(COUPLE POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE MINNESOTA INTO ILLINOIS
WHERE STRONGEST THETA-E SURGE IS OCCURRING.

TODAY...INITIALLY...UPPER JET STREAK EXPECTED TO LIFT UP THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP DRAG INITIAL
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIP INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT/STRAITS REGION...
ALTHOUGH DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE/ INTENSITY AT
BAY. MEANWHILE...ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS NOSES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET AXIS DRIVES
H8 THETA-E GRADIENT UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE
GRADIENT/FORCING INTO THE CWA AS WE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND HAVE NUDGED UP/EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CWA
AS THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY MERGE TOGETHER ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN.

THUNDER...AXIS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EDGES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH BETTER LAPSE RATES HANG DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER LAKES. BUT BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES DOES
EDGE UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SUGGESTING RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDER DOES
INCREASE S-N THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THUNDER
MENTION CURRENTLY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK LOOKS FINE.

HYDRO...CLASSIC SETUP FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED STALLED FRONT...LOW PRESSURE RIDING
UP THE FRONT/STRONG AND DEEP F-GEN SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FEED.
WILL LOOK AT LATEST QPF AND RIVER FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT WE NEED SOME SORT OF FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...

IMPACTS: FLOODING...ESPECIALLY LOWLAND AREAS AND NEAR RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE CONCERNING LEANING AWAY FROM HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRENCE...AND NO MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
DEVELOPING...WITH A TOUCH OF SNOW MIXED IN EARLY ON IN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EXITED EAST AND
DROPPING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN UPPER.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE IS DROPPING THROUGH THE PAC NW. THERE IS
ALSO A SRN STREAM WAVE IN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS TRACKING TOWARD
THE SRN ROCKIES. NRN STREAM WAVE HAS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND NICE
UPPER DIVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS NORTH OF DEVELOPING
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHER
VALUES OF TOTAL PW ARE SEEN SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT (NEARING
0.80")...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AND WITH
TIME...TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DOMINATED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
THIS NRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE NRN
CWA...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AS THE SFC FRONT LAYS IN OVER NRN
MICHIGAN. THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ENE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AND DIRECTLY THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT
EVENTUALLY MAKES IN UP NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
HELP OF STRENGTHENING H8 LLJ...WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER NRN LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LLJ ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LAY OVER MORE EAST AND SOUTH
OF US OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS OVERALL...MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAINS
DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS FAR NRN LOWER UP THROUGH EASTERN
UPPER...WITH SOME SNOW MIXED EARLY ON...BUT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
TENTHS EXPECTED. THE ACTION PICKS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ALSO ENTERING THE GTV BAY REGION...AND
THEN OVERSPREADING ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NRN LOWER...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CHARLEVOIX THROUGH ROGERS CITY. THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL GENERALLY BE CROSSING AREAS THAT ARE
SNOW FREE...SO SNOWMELT NOT ADDING MUCH AT ALL TO WHERE FLOODING
COULD BE A CONCERN. RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH THOUGH...AND DO EXPECT
AREAS OF LOWLAND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT...AS
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SHOT OF GOOD RAIN ALREADY ARRIVING BY
DAYBREAK...AND THIS TIME PERIOD COULD DETERMINE IF WE HAVE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS (ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF RAIN COMING IN). WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH ATTM. TIMING THESE SORT OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES IS STILL TOO DIFFICULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
EASTERN UPPER LATE TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT ALOFT AND
THINGS LOOKING MORE LIKE DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. INCOMING CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THINGS COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. THAT HOWEVER...IS SO DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE (THINKING IT HOLDS OFF ON
ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT...LATE. THUS...RAIN/CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS
DOWN. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EASTERN
UPPER WITH UPPER 40S SOUTH (TEMPS RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SE
CWA?).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

...RAINY AND MILD SUNDAY THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH PIECES OF SOUTHERN JET STREAM
ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. IT IS A TOUGH CALL ON
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO START THE DAY WITH NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY
DRYING OUT FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE...MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN THE MOST OF THE WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TRACK AND
AMOUNT OF DEEPENING WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR IS
ABLE TO CATCH UP WITH CONTINUED SURGE OF MOISTURE...TURNING RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TOWARD
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE EXITING BUT DEEPENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO DRY THINGS OUT
WEDNESDAY. MILDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THIS POINT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES TEMPORARY CONTROL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY AND THE MIDDLE
40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

TOUGH FORECAST TONIGHT. COUPLE BATCHES OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...ONE NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN
PUSHING UP THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT...AND ANOTHER BATCH COMING
OUT OF THE E/SE WISCONSIN REGION. TVC/MBL ARE SURE TO SEE SOME
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PLN WILL TO...FOR A FEW HOURS ANYWAY. APN IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
AT TVC/MBL/APN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS OFF THE SFC.

OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS ARE AND WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAINFALL PIVOTING UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL COULD GET A
BIT HEAVY AT TVC/MBL WITH LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON RUNWAYS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM







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