Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A GRADUAL END OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...

OVERVIEW: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS NRN
LAKE HURON. SECONDARY HEATING INDUCED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SOUPY AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HAS LEAD TO SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS HEATING ENDS AND INLAND
CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. BUT GIVING THIS ENVIRONMENT...I CAN
ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN
LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING
OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO END. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS/SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERVIEW...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS GENERATED
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
NORMAL...EVEN SURPASSING 80 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLEEPING CONDITIONS WON/T BE THE BEST...WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH VERY HUMID
NIGHTS.

THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY SUFFICE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...CONFINING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGE LIFTING A LITTLE MORE NORTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR VERY SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NUDGED POPS AND QPF TO BEGIN TO INDICATE
THIS. CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THOUGHTS...BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEVER APPEARS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WON/T SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY/S PROFILES APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND SATURDAY IS MORE OF THE NORMAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. SO...THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL FRIDAY...BUT
SATURDAY IS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 16 KFT. ALSO WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING...CAPPING IS MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY.
DON`T FORESEE ANY WIND REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINING VERY LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...LEFT OVER CRUD
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S CONVECTION ELSEWHERE MAY INHIBIT THE
DESTABILIZATION THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
CONVECTION TO EVEN BE REALIZED.

REST OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE THERE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AT APN. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. BUT LOW CIGS AND FOG (IFR) WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THEN SPREAD OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...TL






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