Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 211840
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...POTENTIAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...

THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A DRY AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE HURON NATIONAL FOREST. EARLIER SPRINKLES BURIED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND OF CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH ONLY SOME
POSSIBLE SPRINKLES HEADING DOWN TOWARD GTV BAY/MANISTEE/CADILLAC.
CLOUD BASES ARE SO HIGH...DOUBT ANY OF THIS IS HITTING GROUND. SFC
OBS SUPPORT THIS. BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS NE WISCONSIN HAS INDEED
SPARKED A BETTER BUNCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH ILL-DEFINED LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE TRACKING WITH THE MEAN FLOW TOWARD
THE GTV BAY REGION...QUESTION IS WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER. EITHER
WAY...IT`LL JUST BE VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIKELY BRIEF.

SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND WEATHER EXPECTATIONS...

NOT MUCH. MAIN ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURES AND IMPACT OF
CROPS/SENSITIVE VEGETATION/FRUIT.

OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE GTV BAY REGION AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD...SKIES ARE CLEARING QUITE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT/BAND OF CLOUDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN DECIPHERING THE
LOWS TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FREEZE/FROST ISSUES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE ALSO GOING TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE TOO. UPSTREAM
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF NRN
MICHIGAN. THESE FREEZE/FROST TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THE NEED
FOR HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN...AND FOLKS SHOULD BE SAFE AND PREPARE
FOR COVERING CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THE ONLY CAVEAT
TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS. GUSTY EVENING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THOSE LOWER
LYING AREAS SEEING A COMPLETE DECOUPLING...AND RESULTANT LOWEST OF
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE SOME OF THESE SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
20S. THE ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: ONE MORE NIGHT OF FROST AND FREEZE PROBLEMS
(FRIDAY). ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF THE SKY CLEARS FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ONE MORE SUB FREEZING MORNING.

(5/22)FRIDAY...STARTING OUT CHILLY WITH THE AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE NW WIND, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE COLD
POOL DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH -6C AIR ON THE ECMWF
AND GFS, WILL EXPECT THAT THE 50S WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT SEEM THAT COLD AS THE SUNSHINE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE OUT IN FULL FORCE WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH SUB 20% AND
THE 850 MB RH AROUND 40%. HOWEVER, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
AT THE SFC AS THE SFC HIGH DROPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
DROP THE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER TEENS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HURON
FOREST AREA. SO THE MIN RH FOR THE AREAS WILL BE SUB-25%. WHILE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS WON`T GET MUCH OVER 10 MPH AT THE 20FT LEVEL, WILL
PROBABLY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15 MPH. SO WILL HAVE
THE ELEVATED WORDING IN THE HWOAPX FOR THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, WITH THE DRYNESS, WE SET UP FOR A CLEAR NIGHT, AT LEAST
AT THE BEGINNING AND WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION, WILL EXPECT
THAT THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF KINKS
FOR THIS FREEZE NIGHT. THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH IS SE OF THE STATE,
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP A BUNCH ON THE
GFS, BUT NOT AS MUCH ON THE ECMWF. THIS COULD HALT THE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AROUND THE LOWER 30S, AND ALLOW THEM TO RECOVER A BIT
BEFORE DAY BREAK. SECOND IS THE CLOUD COVER AS THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING 60-70% RH AT 850 MB FROM UPSTREAM. SO THERE IS A RISK THAT
MY LOWS ARE TOO LOW, BUT THINK THAT THE UPPER 20S ARE ACHIEVABLE
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 06Z. BEFORE THE WINDS KICK UP.

(5/23)SATURDAY...WHILE THE RETURN FLOW GET GOING, THE MOISTURE AT
THE SFC IS SLOW TO RESPOND, AND WE GET INTO ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER DAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 10C BY 00Z. THE GFS
IS TRYING TO BRING IN RAIN, AND CLOUDS AT 850 MB. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER ON THAT, AND THINK THAT IS THE WAY TO GO AS THE SFC HIGH
RETREATING, THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO BULLISH ON BRINGING THE RAIN AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WITH SUNSHINE, AND
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 70, WILL EXPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 30S, ALLOWING MIN RH TO FALL TO AROUND 25% OVER THE
EAST PART OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE UP HIGHER, WITH 20 FT WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 75F, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LOCATION GETTING OVER CRITICAL VALUES. OVERNIGHT, CONTINUED THE
SLOWNESS OF THE RAIN MOVING IN AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE SOUNDINGS ON THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY,
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING SOME TO SOMETHING THAT IS A LITTLE
MORE REMINISCENT OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS. THAT IS A TROUGH NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCE IS THE HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK ON
THE WEST COAST THAT LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE PACIFIC COAST, IN SOME
FORM THROUGH ROUGHLY NEXT WEEK. SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO US? IT
FORCES A SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE JET STREAM THAT WILL COME OUT OF THE
PACIFIC, AND THE RIDGE THAT WILL FUNNEL THE MAIN SHORTWAVES INTO THE
EASTERN TROUGH, AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WAS LEANING TOWARD AN ECMWF SOLUTION, AS THE GFS SEEMS
OVERLY WET, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE GFS HAS PREDICTED "WET"
EVENTS ONLY TO HAVE THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESSER EVENT TURN OUT TO
CLOSER TO THE TRUTH. SO WILL BACK OFF THE POPS A BIT ON SUNDAY,
ALLOW IT TO BE RAINING ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY TUESDAY, AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...PRETTY QUIET BUT GUSTY...

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CROSSING PLN AT THIS ISSUANCE TIME. THERE WERE
EARLIER SPRINKLES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FIZZLED
WITH TIME. STILL LOOKING AT TVC/MBL TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
BE NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY OUT OF THE
NW INTO THE EVENING. SKIES SKC BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND...AND REMAINS
THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

COLD FRONT AND BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PRESS THROUGH THE FAR
NRN SECTIONS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW FROM SEAL CHOIX TO THE
BRIDGE...THE OVERWHELMING FLOW WAS OUT OF THE WEST/WSW AND GUSTY.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT ALL AREAS...WITH
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY
THROUGH LAKE HURON. HERE...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TONIGHT....FALLING OFF QUICKER IN
WHITEFISH BAY.

CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING SUB-ADVISORY GUSTINESS FROM
WHITEFISH BAY THROUGH LAKE HURON...OTHERWISE WEAKENING WINDS INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ346>348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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