Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 050220
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1020 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLD OVER OUR CWA. ALL DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS
GONE...AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SLOWLY TAKING CONTROL. EXPECT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 06Z...WITH DRY WX AND
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. WITH ONGOING LOW LEVEL CAA...CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC HAS EXITED ALL BUT OUR VERY SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER IS LOCATED ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH
AND EXITING TOWARDS THE EAST. BEHIND SAID SURFACE TROUGH...THE BROAD
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO ROTATE VORT MAXIMA
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND MAKE WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR SOME AND DIMINISHING ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THAT MAY BE LEFT. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C AND
850MB TEMPS OF ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8C...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS IN
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES WITH LAKE CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAND WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND VEERING MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...MAKING FOR VERY
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: AN OVERALL QUIET PERIOD
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK. H5 TROUGH OVER THE NERN PART OF THE CONUS
WILL WEAKEN AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN GREAT
LAKES PUSHES EWD. H5 HEIGHTS WILL BUILD /SLIGHTLY/ BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST MAY
PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY ABOUT FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO LOWER
MICHIGAN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
RESIDUAL AFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL CU
AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES...AND WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE +7-9C RANGE
/AND DECENT MIXING/ HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM AROUND 70 TO NEAR 75.
CU WILL FADE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CHILLY40S
TO AROUND 50 /WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES A BIT COOLER/.

THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY WILL SLIP FARTHER EWD DURING THE DAY...AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS. THIS...COUPLED WITH WHAT MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT SOME
MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS - PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WILL LARGELY
DOWNPLAY HINT IN SOME MODELS THAT PRECIP WILL FALL OVER ERN UPPER
AND TIP OF THE MITT LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY...A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WEATHER SET-UP. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL DRIFT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...OVER TOP OF
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING. CONTINUED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WAA...
COUPLED WITH ANY DIURNAL BOOST...MAY FUEL SOME SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY
OVER N-W AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/. WITH ADDED CLOUD
COVER /IN SPITE OF CONSISTENT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER H8 TEMPS/ HIGHS
WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS IN TERMS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE FINE DETAILS STILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR WITH PRECIP COVERAGE/AMOUNT AND THUNDER CHANCES
...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY TREK FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERHAPS BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS
SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES ALL IN PLAY. THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM ANOTHER (STRONGER) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES (PROVIDING RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS)
TO CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDER
TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MIDDLE 70S (LOWS IN THE
50S) ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY 3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THE 24 TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AOB 10 KTS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS AND HIGHER AROUND
CHEBOYGAN TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN AND GUSTS COULD REACH NEAR 25KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...TJL



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