Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 211922
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOLID MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.
THINK OVERALL BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN A COOL AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION/LAKE EFFECT
COMPONENT. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS
EVENING...WE LOSE THE GUSTINESS ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY BACKING MORE W/NW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







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