Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 291653
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SAGGING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH BAGGY SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS ONTARIO. STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WHERE THERE IS SOME ONGOING PRECIP.
ANOTHER WAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH SW ONTARIO INTO MINNESOTA/
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS NOTED. THAT
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PRETTY MUCH
SITTING IN NO-MANS LAND FROM A SYNOPTIC FORCING STANDPOINT. WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...JUST WAITING TO SEE IF WE
CAN MUSTER SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO...WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW/LAKE BREEZES WILL PROMOTE INLAND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER...AND
SUBSEQUENT POP-UP SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FROM A MOIST CONVECTION POINT
OF VIEW...NOT IMPRESSED WITH THIS MORNINGS APX SOUNDING...AND THE
WEDGE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDING SUGGESTS INLAND SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH MIXING. AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THAT WOULD PRETTY
MUCH KILL OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. COULD SEE SOME BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CREEP BACK INTO PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT RIGHT NOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS NORTHERN LOWER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS LOW MICHIGAN EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC...1007MB LOW ALONG THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDS UP TO AT LEAST 700MB...
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY CENTERS
IN THE VICINITY INCLUDING ONE SLIDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME ALTOCUMULUS OVER LAKE HURON AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SWING
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL
CIRCUMNAVIGATE LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND MORE SYNOPTICALLY SUPPORTED SHOWER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...ANOTHER WEAK GRADIENT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  STRONGER 925MB WINDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
LIMIT INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...AND WHILE
DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING EXPECT DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND PERHAPS LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPE
VALUES SHOULD INCREASE AS A RESULT TO AROUND 500J/KG...WITH FOCUSING
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND A LITTLE LOW/MID LEVEL QG SUPPORT
SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER
LATER IN THE DAY (AFTER 19-20Z).  LAKE BREEZE FORCING PROBABLY NOT
AS STRONG TODAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SO MORE LIKELY THE
WEATHER WILL STAY DRY ABOVE THE BRIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S-AROUND 80 IN
SPOTS.

TONIGHT...COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE EVENING...WEAKENING WITH TIME WITH LOSS
OF HEATING/INSTABILITY.  WILL BE WATCHING A COUPLE OF 700MB TROUGHS
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND ANOTHER LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING
SHOWERS BACK INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH).
SOUTHEAST LOWER MID LEVEL WAVE MAY SWING A FEW BACK INTO AREAS
ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE INLAND AREAS ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. WILL BE RELYING ON THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AS WELL AS MESOSCALE FEATURES/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WINDS TO
PROVIDE THE LIFT/TRIGGER. BEYOND TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING... ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE DESCENT/MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONLY OTHER MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH HELP OF LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM WESTERN
ONTARIO. WINDS WITH GUSTS TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
OUT OF THE EAST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN/S WEATHER...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ON AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY
IN ON HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE. THIS
WOULD INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WOULD
JUST BE HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WITH NO REAL THREAT TO HAMPERING
WEEKEND ACTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH THE VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THINGS CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...FROM THE LOW 70S
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCT-BKN CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THAT
WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. BKN VFR CIGS MOST LIKELY AT TVC/PLN AND A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH CALM WINDS. BUT
THICKER VFR CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS.

WINDS...REMAINING LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY...DOMINATED
BY LAKE BREEZE WIND DIRECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LAKE BREEZES
DOMINATING LOCAL WIND VELOCITIES.

OUTLOOK...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB



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