Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FGUS73 KAPX 031425
ESFAPX
MIZ008-015>036-041-042-021425-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
925 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2016 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT
WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...CHEBOYGAN...MANISTEE...
RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS.

THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE
(MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE
SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL
(HS) PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED
ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.  WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  15   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 :  63   61   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON           12.0   14.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS)
AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS).  FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR
SHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 4 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE
NORMAL.  DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE NORMAL PROBABILITY OF
THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS 11 PERCENT.

THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD
RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW
FORECAST):

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITIES

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              13.5   13.6   13.9   14.2   14.6   15.3   15.6
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.1    4.1    4.3    4.5    4.7    5.0    5.2
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               4.3    4.5    4.8    5.1    5.4    5.9    6.0
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              4.9    5.1    5.6    6.4    7.5    8.5    9.3
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               6.4    7.2    8.7   10.2   11.5   12.0   12.7
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             4.2    5.2    5.7    6.5    7.0    8.1    8.4

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ON THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING...AND AROUND
15 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.  PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING FLOOO STAGE ON THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDAYD...THE BOARDMAN
RIVER NEAR MAYFIELD...AND THE TOBACCO RIVER AT BEAVERTON ARE LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.

THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION
COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD
(LOW FLOW FORECAST):

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              12.5   12.3   12.1   11.9   11.7   11.6   11.4
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.1    3.0    3.0
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:TOBACCO RIVER
BEAVERTON             2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THE LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT
RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE
CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF
ICE JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG EL-NINO IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WAS VERY
MUCH NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WINTER...WITH VERY WARM
CONDITIONS OVERALL PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WINTER
WHICH DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE TYPICAL SNOW SEASON.  THE DECEMBER
STORM TRACK IN PARTICULAR LED TO MORE RAIN EVENTS AND A TOP 10
WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT SAULT STE. MARIE...ALPENA...GAYLORD...
TRAVERSE CITY...AND HOUGHTON LAKE.  THE WINTER OF 2015-16 WILL GO DOWN
AS ONE OF THE TOP FIVE WARMEST ON RECORD...WITH WINTER TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
FOLLOWED TOP 10 WARMEST AUTUMNS (SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER) RECORDED
AT SAULT STE. MARIE...ALPENA...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY...AND HOUGHTON
LAKE.

SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW DEPTS RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER POCKETS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER DUE TO RECENT
SNOWFALL.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK WAS GENERALLY 2 TO
6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE INCH NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE
HURON SHORELINES...AND MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.

TOPSOIL MOISTURE (TOP 1 METER) IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  STREAMFLOWS WERE RUNNING NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ICE COVER IN RECENT
WEEKS DUE TO COLDER WEATHER.  ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME MORE
COMMON.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING MONTHS
(MARCH THROUGH MAY) CALL FOR A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THIS YEAR.
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE
ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH
THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX (ALL
LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE
LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB



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