Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FGUS73 KAPX 061152
ESFAPX
MIZ008-015>036-041-042-200000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SECOND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

THE SPRING 2014 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT WITHIN THE
RIFLE RIVER BASIN...AND ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE
MANISTEE RIVER BASIN.  FLOODING PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR AVERAGE
WITHIN REMAINING RIVER BASINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN..AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE...BOARDMAN...CHEBOYGAN...
MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND THUNDER BAY RIVER BASINS.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN
HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B    7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK              7.0   99.0   99.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  75   16   32   <5   13   <5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING             6.0   11.0   13.0 : >95   61   16   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD             17.0   19.0   99.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     4.6    4.7    4.8    5.0    5.3    5.5    5.6
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               5.1    5.4    5.6    5.9    6.4    6.8    7.5
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              14.6   14.7   15.1   15.6   16.6   17.1   17.2
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              6.8    7.1    7.9    8.6    9.9   11.7   12.3
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               8.1    8.3   10.2   11.5   12.8   14.0   16.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BOARDMAN RIVER
MAYFIELD--BROWN B     3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
:AU SABLE RIVER
RED OAK               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
:MANISTEE RIVER
SHERMAN              11.6   11.6   11.6   11.5   11.5   11.5   11.5
:RIFLE RIVER
STERLING              1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
:PINE RIVER
RUDYARD               2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN
ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING.  THE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.  ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE
CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS...OR IF ICE
JAMS DEVELOP.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

CONDITIONS WERE QUITE WET DURING THE FALL MONTHS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...PRECIPITATION WAS 125-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL DURING THE
SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER TIME FRAME.  DECEMBER AND JANUARY
PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELTS WHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE 125-200
PERCENT OF NORMAL (TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS TENTH WETTEST JANUARY
ON RECORD).  GAYLORD PICKED UP NEARLY 55 INCHES OF SNOW IN
DECEMBER...AND TACKED ON NEARLY 50 INCHES IN JANUARY.  THREE MONTH
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX VALUES FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER
THROUGH JANUARY ALSO ILLUSTRATE THE EFFECTS OF THE WET FALL AND EARLY
WINTER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FOR THE WINTER SEASON (DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY)...ONE OF THE
COLDEST ON RECORD FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  GAYLORD RECORDED ITS
COLDEST WINTER SEASON SINCE 1951...WITH TOP TEN COLDEST WINTERS AT
SAULT STE MARIE (6TH COLDEST)...ALPENA (2ND COLDEST)...TRAVERSE CITY
(8TH COLDEST)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE (2ND COLDEST).  PRECIPITATION WAS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS...DESPITE NEAR RECORD SETTING
GREAT LAKES ICE COVER INHIBITING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE SEASON.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
FEET EAST OF I-75 IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
AND 1.5 FEET TO 3 FEET ELSEWHERE.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITHIN THE
SNOWPACK RANGES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH ISOLATED AREAS HAVING OVER 7 INCHES OF LIQUID
WITHIN THE SNOW PACK.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL DUE MAINLY TO THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON
AREA RIVERS.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ONCE
WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES.  THE COMBINATION OF ICE COVER...ELEVATED
SOIL MOISTURE FROM FALL RAINS...AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER
WITHIN THE SNOW PACK ARE FACTORS THAT WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FLOOD
RISK THIS SPRING.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT DURING
SITUATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID SNOWMELT.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL...NEAR
NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE
SPRING MONTHS (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...OR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

A FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, MARCH 20TH
IN ORDER TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.  LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE
ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/APX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN
IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON
NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.

$$

JPB






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