Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 311609
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...MORE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY ON TAP ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...NOT AS GUSTY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS TO
25 MPH AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED. PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT NOT BETTING ON IT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-312015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL
                    1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-312015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-312015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL
                    1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 65-70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-312015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1600. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1700.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600 UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-312015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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