Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221911
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL 2200.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
311 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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