Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181945
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DUE TO A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.40 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.40 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......21 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 16 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.22 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.50 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 24 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.44 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-190815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......19 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.38 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.46 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
345 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.36 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.33 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 60.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





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