Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231933
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOLD BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINATION OF CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH FIRE
DANGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTER THAT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-240830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......26 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 19 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28-0.41 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.50 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.37 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.47 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-240830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 17 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.41 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.38 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-240830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 18 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.31-0.37 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.39 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.38 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AJS



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