Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 170920
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...DRY TODAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 30 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW DEW POINTS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY.

HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY...WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-172045-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-172045-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-172045-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-172045-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-172045-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SR
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