Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221927
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...WARM AND LESS HUMID THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP FAIRLY
RAPIDLY BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LIGHT
WIND REGIME EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ORGANIZED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.36 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.32 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.22 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 78-83 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
327 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.25 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB



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