Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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528
FNUS53 KAPX 060947
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECT TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH LAKE BREEZE ARE LIKELY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE THERE COULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 15
MPH...BUT NEAR THE LAKES TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY COOLER AND
WETTER. TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
AND PRODUCES THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-062215-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-062215-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH AROUND
                    24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.13 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-062215-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 18 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 29 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-062215-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 37-42 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-062215-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
547 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH AROUND
                    24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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