Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181027
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE...

.DISCUSSION...COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN RETREATS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO A
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AS THE HIGH RETREATS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-182015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-182015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-182015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-182015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-182015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
627 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 60.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL





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