Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 281623
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...VERY WARM WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 35
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
AND RECENT RAIN FREE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME MORE OF
AN ISSUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL NOT EXACERBATE THE FIRE DANGER...BUT
FELT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS WARRANTED.

DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE INLAND AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE LAKES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL SEE ONE MORE HOT DAY TODAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH OUR STATE. ONCE AGAIN...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH AND WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95...EXCEPT 81-86 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.25 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-97...EXCEPT 80-85 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.24 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-96...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-282015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-96...EXCEPT 83-88 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 43-48 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-96.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.22 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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