Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 182003
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COOL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190900-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.16 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190900-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.16 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190900-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-190900-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190900-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
403 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.13 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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