Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 030704
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...CONTINUED WET...

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN`T WANT TO LEAVE.
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME
HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-032015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.36-1.23 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.33 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-032015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
                    AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.69 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.52 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-032015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.70-1.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.40 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-032015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0800
                    UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.55-0.99 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.42 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.16 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-032015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
304 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.52-0.98 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.32-0.50 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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