Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FNUS53 KAPX 192007
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY. QUIETER AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0500. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.24 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.33 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.27 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.18 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.23 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 9
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.18 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0500...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.24 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.29 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.28 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.28 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.20 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH AROUND 18
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
407 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.27 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.23 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.