Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 291008
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...WARM WITH AN INCREASING RAIN THREAT OVER NEXT 48 HOURS...

.DISCUSSION...WEAK WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO POP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER.  WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING LATER TODAY...DEEP MIXING EARLY ON WILL ALLOW
FOR MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TOWARD 30-35 PERCENT IN SPOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RECOVER.  BETTER CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-292030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. PATCHY FOG
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-292030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-292030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.11 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-292030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-292030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
608 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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