Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 281954
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...WARM AND HUMID THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIER TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD
JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME SUN AND MORE
SEASONAL DEW POINTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-290830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-290830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.12 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    0200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-290830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-290830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 9 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-290830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.MEMORIAL DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR


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