Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 222004
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...UP TO
25 MPH. COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP
                    TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-230830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP
                    TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
404 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

TL





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