Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251952
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...COOL/BREEZY/SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLER WEATHER...WITH GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING MONDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30-0.60 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.23 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.43 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.43 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2400. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100.
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.26 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.34 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.33 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-260815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.39-0.67 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.15 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.18 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-260815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.42-0.62 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (960).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.19 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
352 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30-0.45 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.18 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.15 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.24 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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