Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 010638
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TODAY NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-012015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......34 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 27 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 2000
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 25 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-012015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.12 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
238 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR



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