Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
734
FNUS73 KAPX 250921
FWSAPX
Spot Forecast for Skocelas and Roundtangle Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
521 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Current cold temps in the low to mid 20s should begin to warm
relatively quickly after sunrise with light southeast winds around 5
mph in place. Light winds will allow for lake breeze formation
today. More specifically, the lake breeze looks to push inland from
Lake Michigan and cross the burn site between 12pm and 2pm today --
switching winds from southeast to west-northwest behind the boundary
through the remainder of the day. Wind speeds would still be light
between 5-10 mph. While critical RHs (20-25 percent) are expected
across the eastern half of Manistee county, the combination of burn
site location being relatively close to the lake shore and
previously mentioned lake breeze pushing inland will keep the window
for critical RHs short this afternoon -- most likely confined
between 1pm and 3pm. RHs are expected to rise between 25-35 percent
after the lake breeze moves through this afternoon into this
evening. Otherwise, temperatures look to warm into the mid 50s this
afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........23 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph late
in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to
7 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
the west around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (33.0).
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24 24 17 11 7 3 2 1 1 1 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............29 32 36 41 46 49 52 55 56 55 54
RH..............69 61 54 46 38 33 27 23 24 29 31
20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SW SW SW NW NW NW
20 ft wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 7 7 7
20 ft wind gust.10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.7 5.3 5.5 4.7 3.8
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Transp wind dir.SE SE S SE SE E E NE E NW W
Transp wind spd.8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7
Vrate kt-ft.....33 41 82 84 98 142 272 306 382 322 265
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........66 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light, then becoming southeast
5 to 7 mph overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52 50 48 45 42 39 38 37 37 36 36 36
RH..............35 37 40 47 55 62 62 61 59 64 64 66
20 ft wind dir..NW NW NW N N N E E E SE SE SE
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 3 3 3 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 ft wind gust.10 10 10 8 8 8 12 12 12 13 13 13
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........18 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 8 27 43 56 67
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............37 39 49 58 63 66
RH..............64 60 37 24 18 21
20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 ft wind spd..9 9 13 13 13 14
20 ft wind gust.17 17 21 21 21 20
$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Richard Davis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412272.0/APX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL richard.w.davis@usda.gov