Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 162040
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds, with a 20 percent chance of snow,
  through tonight mainly central and eastern North Dakota.


- Cooler temperatures expected Sunday. Breezy northwest winds
  lingering across portions of the south and the James River
  Valley.

- Much warmer, dry, and breezy to windy conditions expected
  Monday.

- Unsettled weather pattern middle through end of the upcoming
  week bringing daily snow chances and cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Cyclonic unsettled flow aloft will allow snow showers to become
abundant through the evening, and possibly lingering into the
overnight hours. Still of note is an increased snow squall
parameter in some of the higher res guidance mainly in the
northeast and east of Highway 3. Looking closer into this, there
is increased 0-2 KM moisture in these areas through tonight.
Winds in the lower levels are increased as well with some weak
convergence at times, yet start to diminish tonight. Instability
is present, although on the to modest end. There is decent
lapse rates, with surface based CAPE generally less than 75
J/KG. Thus looking at individual components of the snow squall
parameter cannot rule out an isolated burst of heavy snow,
especially in the northeast and areas east of Highway 83 where
decreasing theta-e will be found through the night. Otherwise
look for some breezy west northwest winds to linger across the
east through tonight. Low temperatures will be in the teens with
some lower 20s. Perhaps some clouds and isolated snow showers
lingering through Sunday morning. Clouds then diminish in
coverage through the day, with cooler temperatures expected.
Some breezy northwest winds may also linger, mainly in the south
and east. These winds then diminish Sunday night and become
southerly. Lows Sunday night will once again be in the teens to
lower 20s.

With a passing surface low and building ridge aloft, Monday is
expected to overall be warm and dry. A light and variable wind
in the morning will become a breezy southwest wind, switching to
a breezy to windy west northwest wind later in the day. These
winds could perhaps approach advisory level, although a quick
glance at the ECMWF EFI shows low confidence in this. However, with
warming temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, afternoon
humidity values could drop into the 20s. This could lead to
perhaps some near critical fire weather conditions, especially
south of Interstate 94, and even more specifically in
southwestern ND where afternoon high temperatures could be in
the 60s. Ridge starts to flatten on Tuesday perhaps allowing a
weak front to push across the area. This will cool down
temperatures, although they could remain above normal. Mainly
dry conditions are also expected through Tuesday.

This flattening of the ridge could open the door for more active
weather starting mid week. The chance for at least 1 inch of
snow in the NBM Wednesday through Thursday is in the range of 40
to 80%, with the chances for at least 6 inches less than 20%.
There remains uncertainty on timing and strength of the
disturbance that pushes through. This is also seen in the
temperature spreads in the NBM, although most still indicate
cooler than recent pattern. Late in the week into next weekend
could also remain cooler and potentially active. The spread in
ensembles provides the NBM to keep in chance pops for snow each
day, while temperature spreads remain somewhat wide yet still on
the cooler side. Of note is currently the NBM has higher chances
for at least 1 inch and 6 inches of snow in a 48 hour period
over the upcoming weekend compared to the mid week event. This
could be from some ensembles showing a deeper wave moving across
the US. This is currently about 50% of ensembles, so the finer
details will still need to be worked out and monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR, with periods of MVFR, conditions are generally expected
through the forecast period. Clouds will increase today, and may
linger into Sunday morning. This cloud cover could bring MVFR
ceilings at times. A few snow showers are also possible through
tonight, mainly From KMOT to KBIS and eastward. Confidence was
too low to include mention of these showers in the TAFs at this
time. Gusty northwest winds will continue for most sites today,
diminishing somewhat tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.