Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281127
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wave of precipitation moves through the area tonight through
  Friday. It will initially begin as rain in the southwest,
  transitioning to freezing rain in the central, with snow in
  the north.

- Accumulations with this system will be light, however freezing
  rain may lead to slippery surfaces.

- A second wave of precipitation, mostly snow, will arrive
  Saturday and Sunday across the far south, with light
  accumulations expected.

- Next week will see the start of another warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Some high clouds are beginning to filter into the area from the
west, as the surface high pressure continues to slide east. While we
haven`t changed much with the forecast, we have put out a Special
Weather Statement for the area, due to increasing confidence in
seeing some light ice accumulations due to freezing rain across the
southwest and central tonight through Friday evening. This also
covers the northern portions of the area, due to the light snow
accumulations expected up there during the same time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Presently, surface high pressure sits across western and central
North Dakota, resulting in clear skies. An upper level ridge sits
just to the west of the state. Temperatures are slightly warmer than
they were at this time yesterday, but are still pretty cold for this
time of year, with current temperatures in the single digits to mid
teens. Wind speeds are pretty low as well, but are expected to pick
up in the west throughout the day today with an approaching surface
low to our northwest.

As the upper level ridge moves across the state today, the
previously mentioned surface low is forecast to move east across the
southern Canadian Prairies, along with a second surface low to our
south, across Nebraska and South Dakota. This, combined with an
upper level shortwave trough moving through the flow, is expected to
bring a round of precipitation to the area tonight through Friday
evening. With multiple models picking up on the presence of a low
level warm nose and below freezing surface temperatures in the
evening and overnight hours, the current thought is that initially,
freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type across the
southwest and south central, transitioning to snow overnight as that
warm nose weakens and temperatures drop. Total ice accumulations
range anywhere from a glaze up to 0.10", mostly across the southwest
and south central. Due to confidence continuing to increase in at
least some ice accumulations across the area, we plan on putting out
a Special Weather Statement soon to highlight this, along with the
snow potential in the north. Another thing to consider will be
surface temperatures, particularly flat surfaces and pavement, and
how much this will be a factor in ice accumulations. Otherwise, snow
is forecast across the northern half of the state throughout the
entire wave of precipitation, however accumulations are currently
forecast to be somewhat light. The current probabilities of 2" of
snow max out at 40 to 60% across the far north, with a 60 to 80%
chance of 1" of snow. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be
in the mid to upper 30s.

Following this initial system, a second wave of precipitation will
be possible Saturday through Sunday, this time across the far south.
An upper level cutoff low across the southern California coast is
forecast to move east into the Great Plains, along with an
associated surface low deepening across Colorado. As this low moves
east, the northern periphery of the low is expected to extend into
southern North Dakota, providing a slightly longer period of light
precipitation, mostly falling as snow. Precipitation rates are
expected to be pretty low, so accumulations are forecast to be
light. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are expected to be
in the mid to upper 30s.

After this active period, current long range guidance suggests a
drier and warmer period, with temperatures increasing Monday through
Wednesday. A robust upper level ridge is forecast to build east
behind the aforementioned cutoff low, bringing widespread
temperatures in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday, with some
locations potentially seeing lower 60s by Wednesday. NBM spreads are
rather low this far out, indicating pretty good confidence in these
temperatures panning out. One limitation we`ll have to consider is
the surface snow distribution, but we will just have to wait and see
what these two systems bring us first.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Currently, VFR conditions are present across all terminals.
Generally light southeasterly winds will become a bit stronger and
gustier through the daytime hours as surface low pressure moves into
the area from the west, with KDIK potentially seeing gusts up to 25
kts at times. This low will bring in precipitation to the area near
the end of the TAF period, starting out as freezing rain in the
southwest and central, and snow in the north. Due to this, -FZRA was
added to KDIK at 05z and KBIS at 07z. -SN was also added to KXWA and
KMOT at 09z and 10z respectively.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson


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