Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 141403
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
903 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds today with areas of morning fog.

- Well above average temperatures return Friday, with a cooldown
  for the weekend.

- Windy Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas of fog persist across the forecast area. However, the vast
majority of locations are showing visibility of a mile or
greater. Based on that and the expectation that conditions will
continue to improve through the remainder of the morning and
afternoon, have opted not to issue another Special Weather
Statement.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Low clouds and areas of fog continue over the area. Visibility
over most locations remains over a half-mile, with the only
locations dipping below at this point being Carrington and
Harvey. So, will continue the Special Weather Statement
addressing the fog through mid-morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Current surface analysis places low over eastern Kansas, with
high stretching from the Pacific Northwest towards northern
Manitoba. Upper level analysis places low over eastern
Nevada/western Utah resulting in split flow over the Rockies
into the Plains. Our area remains primarily in the northern
stream, with west/northwesterly flow. A few short waves noted in
the flow upstream just over the Canadian border. A broad area
of low cloud cover continues to settle over our area, with only
the far southeastern areas not under the low clouds yet. Along
with the clouds, some areas of fog have developed, dense in a
few spots.

For today, low clouds and fog will be the main concern, while a
cooler day is on tap. Some dense fog is noted, but right now it
remains really hit and miss, so have been addressing with a
special weather statement. Continue to monitor, and if coverage
of the denser fog bumps up will need to consider an advisory.
Otherwise, only other concern is possibly a very light rain
shower or a few flakes of snow developing over parts of central
North Dakota with the aforementioned short waves passing
through. With that said, this should be hit and miss and if
anything does develop it should be very light. Skies will
finally start clearing tonight from west to east as winds start
to shift southwesterly.

On Friday, a surface low drops from northern Saskatchewan
towards Ontario. Though the brunt of this system along with its
main area of precipitation will pass to the east, we will see
increasing west/southwesterly winds ahead of the arrival of the
cold front, along with warming temperatures. This does prompt
some fire weather concerns as humidity values are expected to
drop into the 20s to lower 30s over southern portions of the
area. High temperatures will climb to about 15 to 20 degrees
above average over most locations.

Cold front makes its way through late Friday afternoon into
Friday night with cooler air settling in for Saturday. Winds
will still remain a bit gusty. Cooling trend continues into
Sunday, with most locations actually dropping to a bit below
average temperatures.

Temperatures do rebound for the start of the upcoming work week,
though the amount of this rebound does remain in question as NBM
spreads between the 25th and 75th percentile remain notable.
This becomes quite large as we approach the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024


Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions due to low clouds and areas of
fog will continue through mid-morning, with very gradual
improvement then occurring. By mid-day, southwestern areas will
improve to MVFR, with improvement spreading northeast through
the afternoon. Some clearing is expected over western areas
Thursday evening, with conditions improving to VFR overnight
across the area.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS


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