Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 131439
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures today, with a bit of a
  cooldown Thursday. Return to well above average temperatures Friday,
  with a cooldown to around average this weekend.

- Becoming windy Friday, remaining windy Saturday and possibly
  into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Dense fog has formed around the Missouri Coteau from Harvey
through Minot and eastern Burke County. Visibilities have been
bouncing from 1/4 mile to 3 mile. Should burn off by noon with
the sun and the NAM NEST also has it burning off.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

For early morning update have trimmed precipitation chances
around the Turtle Mountains to just right along the border as
any precipitation has been holding to the north and east. Have
also removed mention of freezing rain as temperatures continue
to hold above freezing. Elsewhere, have added some sprinkles
over south central North Dakota into the James River Valley, and
some low rain chances over the far southwest where a little area
of light rain approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Current surface analysis places weak low over South Dakota,
with high over northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Upper level
analysis places compact low over the Idaho panhandle, with
trough dropping to the south. Over our area, west-southwesterly
flow continues, with a weak short wave cutting through southern
Saskatchewan into northwest North Dakota. Ahead of the short
wave, a few very light rain showers are noted over southern
Manitoba into the Turtle Mountains area, though these are moving
to the east. So far temperatures in this area have remained
above freezing.

For today, aforementioned light rain will continue to push east,
though may linger long enough over our far north central for a
few more drops to fall. Still a little concern for some light
freezing rain if temps drop below freezing, but this concern has
been lowering the past few hours as this system moves along.
Will have to take a close look at this when doing the early
morning update as would not be surprised if we are able to
remove precipitation chances entirely. Further south, radar
continues to show some echos over parts of south central North
Dakota into the James River Valley, but so far have yet to have
any reports of precipitation with this. Otherwise, a very warm
day for this time of year is expected, with highs about 10 to 20
degrees above average.

A cooler airmass settles into the area this evening, remaining
over the area for Thursday, returning high temperatures closer
to average.

On Friday, a surface low drops from northern Saskatchewan
through central Manitoba on its way to Ontario. Notably warmer
air will be ushered in before a cold front dives through the
area, bringing gusty winds. Most precipitation from this system
should stay to our east, though a little may graze the Turtle
Mountains area.

Saturday will be notably cooler and windy, but high temps will
still be near to a bit above average. Cooler air does continue
to settle in, with closer to average highs, maybe even a bit
below average in some spots, by Sunday.

As we get into the start of the upcoming work week, a warming
trend is expected, but how much this warming is remains in
question as NBM guidance still shows a strong difference between
the 25th and 75th percentiles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Some fog has developed over the upper James River Valley and
parts of north central North Dakota, resulting in a small area
of MVFR to IFR visibility. This should improve around 17z.
Elsewhere, only some light rain and sprinkles should be found
over various parts of the area, not limiting visibility.
Tonight, IFR ceilings will develop and spread from north to
south this evening into the overnight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS/Smith


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