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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161742
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry and pleasant day is expected with temperatures
warming into the 50s to near 60 degrees. A spot sprinkle or
light shower is possible this afternoon into the evening hours
across northern Vermont. As a ridge of high pressure at all
levels builds into the North Country on Wednesday, a mostly
sunny and warm day is anticipated, before clouds and a few
showers are possible for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...Temperatures have been rising quickly
today despite increasing cold air advection and highs should
reach the 50s to low 60s across the region. Had to increase
highs slightly to reflect observations and trends. Some cumulus
has been popping up this afternoon but it is less widespread
and thick as previously forecast so this is likely helping
temperatures be higher as well. It looks like there is less of a
chance of showers across the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon
than previously thought so trimmed PoPs. No major changes with
this update. Previous discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...For today, mid/upper lvl trof prevails
acrs the fa with weak embedded s/w energy. This energy has
limited moisture to work with, but weak instability develops
during peak heating, combined with upslope flow may produce a
few light sprinkles or rain showers acrs northern VT this
aftn/evening. Any rainfall wl be light and mainly confined to
the higher trrn. Temps wl range from near 60F lower CT River
Valley/CPV to mid/upper 40s NEK and higher trrn. Tonight is
quiet with any lingering showers dissipating quickly and mostly
clear skies developing. Fog should be limited as northwest flow
results in drier bl conditions. Temps drop back into the mid 20s
NEK/SLK to l/m 30s CPV/SLV. On Weds mid/upper lvl ridge builds
acrs our fa with sfc high pres nosing into the North Country.
This results in deep dry layer overhead with plenty of sunshine
and mild temps. Given the drying aloft, have trended toward the
lower sfc dwpts to capture min rh values near critical low
levels better. Temps warm are a few degrees warmer in several
locations given plenty of sunshine and drier bl conditions.
Highs mid 50s to lower 60s most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...After a period of pleasant and dry
weather, an approaching front will bring increasing clouds and the
next chances of precipitation to the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. This occluded front will bring light rain showers to the
region, although there is a question of how far eastward it is able
to progress before it falls apart Thursday night into Friday
morning. The greatest confidence for measurable precipitation will
be across northern New York, with greater uncertainty as you head
towards eastern Vermont. Precipitation amounts remain light, with
less than 0.5 inches across the region. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees warmer than climatological normals with the increased cloud
cover, with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Daytime high
temperatures will also be near normal, generally in the 50s,
although precipitation and cloud cover may influence these
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue through
the end of week as a sharp cold front passes across the region
Friday night, bringing additional chances for precipitation. While
precipitation will likely be more widespread in comparison to
Thursday, precipitation amounts should remain on the lighter side.
Some light scattered showers may continue during the day on Saturday
with weak shortwave forcing, although lingering low-level moisture
will be limited, keeping the showers isolated in nature. Saturday
will also feature some brisk westerly winds behind the frontal
passage, with gusts near 25 mph possible and even breezier across
the high terrain. As we head into the end of the weekend and early
next week, high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing
another period of mostly dry weather. Temperatures over the weekend
will be fairly seasonable, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the entire TAF period. Some lower clouds will move into
northeast Vermont this afternoon which will affect EFK, but ceilings
should stay a low VFR. These clouds will dissipate quickly during
the evening and then the only clouds in the rest of the period will
be high clouds. With a drier airmass, fog is not expected at any of
the terminals tonight. Winds have been increasing during the day and
they are generally gusting between 10-20 kts across the region. They
will continue for much of the afternoon before they lighten up
quickly this evening. Winds will pick up again during the day
tomorrow though not a strong as today.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Myskowski