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000
FXUS61 KBTV 102259
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
659 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Intervals of rain are expected to continue through the weekend.
Gusty winds are expected after a warm front crosses on Thursday.
In combination with warmth and continued rain, this will result
in snowmelt that will cause river rises that crest on Friday.
After briefly cooler temperatures on Saturday, temperatures will
warm over the new week. After brief drying, there will be weak
weather systems that swing through over the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 647 PM EDT Wednesday... Rain showers are exiting the
region to the east relatively quickly and they should be
completely out before midnight. Clouds are have cleared out over
much of northern New York and the clearing should continue to
work its way eastward a bit. Had to lower sky cover there as it
is clearing more than forecast. Temperatures have stayed cooler
than forecast east of the Greens so dropped temperatures there a
bit for the overnight. The clearing still looks like it could
lead to some patchy fog development, particularly for the
sheltered areas that still have snowpack. Previous discussion
follows...


Previous Forecast...Scattered to numerous showers continue.
Marginal CAPE, favorable upper diffluence, and height falls from a
weak shortwave and surface trough continue to help produce this
activity. However, convection has been too low to produce lightning
and have removed thunder with this update. Late this evening, the
loss of daytime heating will cause activity to wane, and then the
departure of the shortwave should bring any lingering activity to a
close. There could be partial clearing tonight. Sheltered areas
should decouple though, and there may be some patchy fog in the
river valleys this evening once temperatures settle into the 40s.
There may also be areas of fog near patchy snow cover wherever it
rained today.

A warm front arrives mid to late morning with another wave of
precipitation. Better forcing will be present across northern New
York, where categorical PoPs are shown. Across Vermont, there may be
some mid-level dry air and subsidence that prevents precipitation
and guidance is not unanimous with precipitation chances. After the
front crosses, dry air within the warm section will result in
partial clearing. Temperatures should surge into the 60s behind the
front, but remain in the mid 50s across eastern Vermont. Increasing
pressure gradients from a maturing cyclone in Canada and high
pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will be favorable for channeled
south flow in the valleys and some downsloping in the Adirondacks
where wind speeds will gradually ramp up to 35 to 45 mph. Outside
this area, generally 20 to 30 mph is expected in eastern VT and the
St. Lawrence Valley. By evening, a surge of high PWAT air up to
1.25" and forcing from the incoming shortwave will begin to bring
scattered showers back in during late evening and overnight. This
will also result in very warm overnight lows. There`s some guidance
out there suggesting some areas don`t fall below 60. Such will cause
significant snowmelt, but with waves of rain separated by several
hours. Rivers will be responding to rain and snowmelt, especially
Thursday night into Friday. Crests are expected beyond the near
term, but anticipate rivers to start rising from these contributions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface low pressure centered over the
Great Lakes will lift northeastward into Quebec, with a cold front
moving through the region during the day on Friday. This will bring
continued periods of showers throughout the day, primarily along the
frontal boundary, with some potential for some embedded
thunderstorms. Looking at some of the model soundings, the overall
instability is limited, although non-zero, and will largely depend
on how much surface heating is able to take place. Temperatures
during the day on Friday will be mild, with daytime high
temperatures warming into the 60s. Cooler air will move in behind
the front, with overnight lows dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s
across the region. QPF amounts have continued to trend a little bit
lower than previous forecasts, generally between 0.5 to 1.0 inches
with some isolated higher amounts in parts of the Adirondacks. The
lower precipitation amounts will help limit the late week flooding
potential, although rivers and streams will be running high due to a
combination of rainfall and snowmelt. Ensemble river forecast
guidance continues to show the 25th to 75th percentile range for our
rivers below minor flood stage, but we will be watching rivers
closely leading up to and throughout the event as they will be
approaching bankfull.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather will continue into the
weekend as the region remains under broad cyclonic flow. Showers
will continue to become light and more scattered, and orographically
driven under northwesterly flow. Temperatures on Saturday will be
much cooler than prior days, with highs only reaching the 40s to low
50s. Winds may be a bit breezy on Saturday behind the cold front,
which may make it feel even colder. Some model guidance suggests a
period of drier and warmer weather early next week as ridging builds
across the region, but there is a decent amount of model
disagreement at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Conditions are mainly VFR right now with
light to locally moderate rain showers dotting the region. A
more organized batch just west of KPBG and KSLK will slide east
during the next 6 hours. Speaking of KPBG and KSLK, the two ASOS
stations are having comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic, and
AMD NOT SKED has been added to both TAFs. Heavier showers may
produce 2 to 4 SM visibility and brief MVFR cigs, but overall
impacts will be brief. South to southeast winds are presently 9
to 15 knots with a few gusts 22 to 25 knots. These will
continue the next 3 to 6 hours, and then decrease, especially
after 00z when winds become 5 knots or less. As shower activity
and winds cease, areas that received rain may observe patchy
fog, but with the cloud cover, confidence is not high at the
moment. Have noted VCFG for KMSS, KSLK, and KPBG in the 06z to
13z period. At KMPV, it could be low stratus, fog, or a mix of
both, and for now, have indicated 4SM and OVC011. Beyond 13z, a
warm front will lift north and bring rain with southeast winds
increasing again.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA, Definite RA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Snowmelt, warm conditions, and rain will result in river rises
through Friday. At this time, it appears that rainfall will not
be sufficient to produce river flooding, but the East Branch of
the Ausable River and Otter Creek are forecast to approach
bankfull. Any increase in the rainfall forecast or expected
snowmelt could result in minor flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV