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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141100
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
700 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system will cross the region today,
resulting in another round of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build
in tonight and bring a return to drier weather that will then last
through Tuesday. Unsettled weather then returns by midweek as
another broad low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Transient surface high pressure will slide east of the region early
this morning, making way for a fast-moving, compact low pressure
system over the central Great Lakes. This system will slide from
northwest to southeast across the region today, leading to another
round of fairly widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. It will
otherwise be breezy east and northeast of Lake Erie late this
morning and early afternoon when a brief lull in the shower activity
is expected. A large spread in high temperatures is expected today,
ranging from the mid and upper 60s across portions of the Southern
Tier to low 50s up in the North Country.

Looking at the details...A weak warm frontal segment out ahead of
the low is tracking east across WNY this morning. While this may
touch off a few light showers on its own, it will mainly serve to
set up a NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone across the Finger Lakes and
eastern Lake Ontario region. Low-level convergence and subsequent
lift and on the nose of a weakening 50kt LLJ behind the warm front
will allow a swath of rain showers to develop long this boundary.
Deeper lift and instability will be hampered by the equatorward exit
region of a 100kt upper level jet over southern Ontario, likely
precluding thunderstorm or heavy rain development in this area. An
existing steady slug of precip associated with the low is also
currently exiting upper Michigan and will to move into western NY
around the same time this morning. While plenty of embedded
thunderstorms have been observed within this complex overnight,
tstorm chances across WNY remain lower through the morning as it
will need to traverse an increasingly stable environment before
arriving in our neck of the woods.

Moving into the late morning and afternoon, the core of the main LLJ
ahead of the low will have shifted eastward into central NY and PA.
This should cause a brief lull in the steady showers across the
northern Finger Lakes and North Country. The low will then begin its
push across the eastern Great Lakes, dragging its associated cold
frontal boundary southward in the process. A broad swath of showers
is expected to develop across the central Finger Lakes and Southern
Tier as it moves through. Differential heating of the warm sector
should cause at least a few hundred joules of CAPE to build,
resulting in chances for a few thunderstorms to develop. While there
appears to be just enough shear for a few stronger and better
organized storms, the greater severe threat looks to be well south
of our area across PA where the greater instability and shear will
overlap.

Any showers and lingering thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes will quickly exit to the south by early this evening as
the low pressure system moves through. Broad high pressure building
in from the west should lead to a mostly dry and quiet night, though
would expect a wealth post-frontal clouds to linger. There could
also be a stray sprinkle up in the North Country. Otherwise, temps
will fall back into the low 40s in most spots, with upper 30s across
the Tug and Western Dacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging building in across areas south of Lake Ontario in the wake
of the cold fropa should keep a mainly dry forecast intact from the
Finger Lakes westward for Monday. Meanwhile, the base of an upper
level trough will linger across northern NY. A shortwave rotating
southeast through the base of this upper level trough will edge an
associated secondary surface cold front toward the Saint Lawrence
Valley. These features may spark off a few showers, mainly across
the eastern Lake Ontario region, with best chances toward the Saint
Lawrence Valley closer to the surface boundary. Expect seasonable
temperatures with highs low to mid 50s east of Lake Ontario, with
mid 50s to near 60 across western NY.

Upper level trough pushes east into New England Monday night making
way for ridging surface and aloft to build east across western and
northcentral NY. Surface ridge builds right over our area Tuesday
before slowly sliding into eastern NY/western New England Tuesday
night. Meanwhile the axis of an amplifying upper level ridge will
slowly slide east from the upper to central Great Lakes during this
same timeframe. This will bring a well-deserved and welcomed period
of dry weather and relatively light winds. A warm frontal segment
extending well to the east of a system over the mid Mississippi
Valley will approach from southwest with some model guidance trying
to bring a few showers into far western NY by late Tuesday night.
Believe amplifying upper level ridge just to our west, along with
strong surface ridge parked across eastern NY will help to weaken
this activity before getting here, or at the least slow the eastward
progression. Airmass will modify some by Tuesday allowing daytime
highs to climb into the 60s for many areas south of Lake Ontario,
with 50s right along the Lake Ontario shoreline into the eastern
Lake Ontario region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Although generally unsettled weather still looks plausible during
much of the long term period, a system that looked as though it were
going to bring a similar scenario in terms of rainfall and winds to
the system that we just dealt with over the past few days, now
appears as though it will rapidly weaken as it moves east toward our
area, versus strengthen as this last storm did. The details...

Southern stream system rapidly deepens just to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies Tuesday night, then presses east into the upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday while already showing signs of
weakening. One reason likely being the now highly amplified upper
level ridge parked over the lower Great Lakes, extending all the way
north over Hudson Bay. An attendant surface warm front will try to
push into the area from the southwest on Wednesday, with the
likelihood of showers pressing into the western areas, however rain
showers will have a more difficult time moving further east with a
strong surface ridge still parked across far eastern NY and western
New England. This looks as though it may cause the warm front to
stall out right across our area, possibly halting the eastward
progression of the shower activity, which would keep the best
chances for showers across western NY through the day Wednesday.

Low pressure will then continue to weaken as it presses east toward
the central Great Lakes and runs straight into the strong upper
ridge still parked over the Northeast. System then tracks north as
it shears out Wednesday night before becoming absorbed by a northern
stream trough pushing east across the Canadian Prairies. Stalled
boundary will linger across our area keeping the likelihood for at
least some light showers Wednesday night into Thursday before all
but washing out.

Aforementioned northern stream trough will then approach the area
toward the tail end of the work week. A potent shortwave riding
along the leading edge of the upper trough and associated surface
cold front will slide across the area later Thursday night and
Friday bringing the next best chance for some showers to our region.
A secondary cold front will then cross the area toward the tail end
of the period bringing a shot of cooler air and a few more showers,
some of which may mix with a few wet flakes across the higher
terrain by the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Variable flight conditions can be expected as a fast moving, compact
low pressure system approaches from the northwest this morning and
then quickly moves southeast of the eastern Great Lakes near or
after 00z.

Through daybreak, a transient area of surface high pressure will
crest over and east of the region. This is expected to hold mainly
VFR conditions in place through daybreak. The low will reach the
vicinity of Lake Ontario later this morning, then quickly dive
southeast through the afternoon. This will lead to increasingly
widespread shower development across the forecast area, with many
areas deteriorating to MVFR. A few thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon and early evening, mainly in closer proximity to the NY/PA
border (KJHW) and the southern Finger Lakes. Brief, localized IFR
conditions will be possible in any storms that develop.

Otherwise, it is expected to become breezy east and northeast of
Lake Erie today. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible at KBUF and KIAG
between 17z-20z.

Showers should quickly taper off from north to south late this
afternoon and evening in the wake of the system. Partial clearing is
expected across western NY, though MVFR post-frontal clouds are
expected to fill in across much of the area.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A compact low pressure system and associated cold front will quickly
dive southeast across the lakes today. The track of this low will
cause winds to become increasingly offshore over Lake Ontario, while
shifting them southwesterly across Erie. Winds are expected to
quickly ramp up over Lake Erie as this occurs, which will likely
result in a brief period of heavy chop across the nearshore waters.
Have hoisted a SCA for the Lake Erie, while SCAs remain in effect on
the eastern end of Lake Ontario through the morning hours as waves
still remain elevated from the previous weekend system.

Gentle winds are then anticipated for tonight throughout the region
as weak high pressure builds back in behind the low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP