Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211749
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
149 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair today with above normal high temperatures. Moisture will
be on the increase Friday with rain moving in, with lower high
temperatures. Chance of showers mainly southern and eastern
areas Saturday. Fair and cool Sunday and Monday. Chance of
showers Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly continuing into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak frontal boundary has moved south of the area. Pressure
ridge centered over southeast VA extending southwest across the
area. Although low level flow is becoming east-south-easterly,
the air mass remains dry with precipitable water around 0.5
inches. Mid and high level clouds will increase this evening as
the subtropical jet lifts northeast from the Gulf coast ahead
of upper low moving east across the southern Plains. Late
tonight the low level south-easterly moisture flux will increase
as weak low pressure develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico. So
expect some lower cloudiness toward daybreak but any rain
should hold off until after daybreak. With overcast skies
developing, low temps warmer than previous nights, guidance
consistent in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main upper flow to remain to our north while a slow moving
upper low tracks east across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the
SE US coast. Surface high pressure center over the NE US/Mid
Atlantic region early Friday to slip offshore Friday afternoon,
while low pressure develops and tracks east along the Gulf
Coast. This will spread moisture into our region under a 40+ kt
southerly h85 jet. Resultant moisture transport/isentropic lift
to spread rain into our region Friday/Friday night. Resultant in
situ wedging to lead to lower max temps Friday. Surface low to
translate to the Carolina coast Friday night and Saturday, while
upper trough slowly moves through. Decreasing moisture Saturday
but still enough to provide a chance of showers, and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm southern areas. Drier air to move in
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fair and cooler Sunday with upper ridging over the east coast
and surface high pressure building into New England and ridging
down the eastern seaboard. High pressure ridge to remain Monday.
If ideal radiational cooling conditions set up, some risk of
frost, especially northern areas early Monday morning. Next
front to provide a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Significant model discrepancies
late in the forecast period regarding timing of the front and
whether an upper low will cut off over the region. Low
confidence Thursday. Used NBM which maintains chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through at least 06z. Ceiling
restrictions possible toward 12z Friday.

Pressure ridge to the northeast of the area, so low level flow
will be light east-southeast through the overnight. Air mass
remains mainly dry this afternoon with only high clouds
increasing. A few prescribed fires in the area but smoke plumes
appears to not be impacting terminals at the moment. Mid and
high level clouds will increase tonight, especially after 06z as
weak low pressure develops in the northern Gulf and moisture
advection increases off the Atlantic. Patchy low stratus is
possible toward 12z, mainly 09z-15z Friday. Low clouds may
scatter out after 15z with mid level ceilings to end of taf
period. Some light rain will be possible after 12z, but not
expected to impact visibilities in the morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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