464
FXUS61 KCAR 040208
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1008 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region tonight through Saturday,
then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. An occluded front will
cross the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will
cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1008 PM Update: Clouds continue to move west out of New
Brunswick into the area this evening, with skies becoming
overcast through the night from east to west. A brief increase
in wind gusts has been observed on the leading edge of this
stratus deck, which is associated with a weak backdoor front
around 850mb. No other impacts are expected from this feature.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure, surface/aloft, will remain ridged across the region
tonight through Saturday. Moisture beneath the subsidence inversion,
along with clouds wrapping back across the region from the
Maritimes, will keep partly/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast
area tonight. Diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back
from the Maritimes will keep partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across
the region Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
upper 30s to around 40 across the forecast area. High temperatures
Saturday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of
the forecast area. However, mid to upper 50s will occur along the
Downeast coast where onshore winds will develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure should remain centered over NB Saturday
night. Upper air model soundings indicate a moisture low layer
throughout the night, thus cloudy skies are expected. Temps
should be fairly mild with S flow and light winds. By Sunday, a
weakening occluded frontal boundary starts to approach from the
west. Clouds and S winds should increase into the afternoon with
the tightening pressure gradients. By the evening, the chance
for rain showers should spread to the eastern border. By Sunday
night, rain showers will continue with decreasing S winds. QPF
models show the majority of rain staying to the south as the low
intensifies. By Monday, the system will pick up speed and pull
the rest of the rain showers out of the region. The 925mb model
temps show a warm airmass behind the system, which should bring
temps above normal for the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure returns to the region Monday night and remains in
the area through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the extended
models are picking up on some shortwave energy moving across the
waters. However, the 12z model runs showing the rain staying
far to the south. The NBM had to much precip in the forecast for
the end of the week due to these shortwave systems, so
decreased precip to chance or slight chance. The models lose
consistency by the weekend. Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, with cigs falling towards SCT to
BKN MVFR across Downeast terminals, and BKN to OVC MVFR at
northern terminals overnight. Cigs will trend back towards VFR
through the day on Saturday. Winds NE around 5 kts, shifting SE
around 5 kts on Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Sun night...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs.
Lgt Winds.

Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn
shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in
the day.

Mon night-Wed...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
through this period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash