Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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355 FXUS62 KCHS 010245 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1045 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through early next week. A cold front could approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Temperatures, as expected, continue to slowly fall due to relatively clear skies, dry low levels and light winds. A deep layer ridge remains centered over the Great Lakes region, southward into the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast states. Still expect relatively cool temperatures by morning, with below normal mins in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland, and mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Narrow short-wave ridge axis is just upstream this afternoon, advancing through the southeast states and Ohio Valley region, although with a pronounced short-wave circulation pressing into the western periphery of the ridge along with associated precip extending from the mid Mississippi River Valley down into the Gulf. Short-wave ridge and attending surface high pressure will build along the southeast and mid Atlantic regions heading into Saturday and off the Atlantic coast for Sunday into Monday. With upper level ridging and surface high pressure in control, saturday will be another quiet and comfortable day overall. That said, there will be weak troughing and some convection migrating through the Gulf Coast states running up against the ridge and drier air across the southeast states, none of which will make it into the region. However, we will see some higher level cloud cover spread across the region and at least some afternoon cumulus development. Mostly sunny overall. Given similar thermal profiles, daytime highs should run very similar to today - essentially the middle 80s. Sunday/Monday: Larger scale pattern will be transitioning to a bit more progressive/zonal look across the CONUS with the northern stream becoming more pronounced over the northern tier of states over top a weakening southern stream. Weakening/nebulous flow pattern will exist across the southeast that may open the door for one or more decaying waves rippling through the region. Meanwhile, southerly return flow of warmer, higher dewpoint air kicks in starting Sunday and continuing into Monday. Upshot, more typical summertime precip chances will begin to nudge upward starting Sunday and continuing Monday, mainly inland. Daytime temperatures also nudge upward through the period - middle 80s Sunday and the upper 80s to around 90 Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... More of the same through a good portion of the week. Larger scale southerly low level flow continues to draw warmer temperatures and higher dewpoint air into the region through the week while weaker smaller scale disturbances may continue to ripple through the region. We will continue to carry isolated to scattered precip chances through the week - the typical summertime pattern. Meanwhile, deep upper level low may be diving through the Great Lakes region late week helping to drive a boundary into the mid Atlantic and southeast region and bringing higher precip chances at that point. Still lots of time to refine that portion of the forecast. Temperatures continue to run in the upper 80s to around 90 through midweek and potentially the lower 90s for the late week period. Overnight lows will span the 60s...warmer along the coast. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through early to mid week. Winds could briefly gust to 15 to 20 knots tomorrow/Saturday afternoon, especially at KSAV. && .MARINE... Rest of Tonight: No highlights are expected and no changes were made to the previous forecast. High pressure is expected to remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. This will result in generally NE winds 15 kt or less. Current observations still showing occasional wind gust of 15-20 knots at both 41004 and 41008 buoys, but expect a gradual weakening of the pressure gradient, especially over the SC water, which should result in wind gust fall back later tonight. Seas of 2-3 ft within 20 nm, and 3-4 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm. Saturday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the primary feature affecting the marine area Saturday through Wednesday. A decent sea breeze should develop each afternoon along the coast. Winds should remain below 15 kt and seas no higher than 4 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RFM SHORT TERM...Adam LONG TERM...Adam AVIATION...Adam/RFM MARINE...Adam/RFM