566
FXUS64 KCRP 061837
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
137 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Quiet forecast through the short term period.

Will see some light rain/drizzle in the Coastal Plains into the
Brush Country this morning as low level moist layer remains
sufficiently deep and some weak low level vorticity moves across
with a subtle kink in the isobars. Expect mainly trace to a couple
hundredths of an inch amounts. By mid-day, with low level
shortwave moving out and flow becoming more south to west, will
end precip chances, and should see at least some breaks in the
clouds. Upper level clouds coverage should be less today as well,
but will likely keep the haze from agricultural burns in mexico.

Today begins a warming trend as warmer/drier air moves in through
the low levels (especially over western parts of the area) with
the aforementioned south/westerly winds. High temperatures today
will approach 100 over the Rio Grande Plains. The 90s will be
mostly confined to the Brush Country as moisture stays higher
longer east, and low level winds remain out of the southeast. By
Tuesday most of the area should be 90 or higher (minus coastal
areas), and we`ll top 100 west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a high chance of heat index values 100 degrees or higher
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
  temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

No significant changes to the long term forecast. The main story
remains the very warm temperatures through Thursday, followed by a
frontal passage leading to cooler and drier conditions over the
weekend.

Persistent onshore flow will continue to advect moisture into the
region, which combined with the very warm temperatures will lead to
a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts on the population,
especially across portions of the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains
and southern Coastal Plains. Heat index values of 110-114 degrees
will be possible during the afternoon hours Tuesday through
Thursday. Therefore, Heat Advisories may be needed in following
forecast packages. If spending time outside this week, please take
this under consideration. Make sure to keep yourself hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat and wear light and loose fitting
clothes.

By the end of the week conditions will change in response to a
frontal passage, which is progged to move across the area sometime
Thursday night. Cooler temperatures are then in store Friday through
the weekend. Highs will fall into the mid 80s to low 90s range, with
overnight lows in the low 60s to near 70. A few showers and
thunderstorms may accompany this boundary, but much drier conditions
are expected in its wake. Onshore flow resumes late in the weekend
as surface high pressure drifts eastward. Moisture return is
expected to follow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to lift to VFR levels in the next few
hours, remaining at VFR through this evening. Overnight, sites
will return to a mixture of MVFR to IFR conditions. Poor aviation
conditions will likely persist through the morning hours on
Tuesday. Southeasterly winds this afternoon will continue to be
gusty at around 20 knots. Winds will decouple tonight and become
weak and variable by early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before weaker flow takes over the latter half of the week into
the weekend. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
are expected through Wednesday with potentially some SCA
conditions present as well. Winds will back more to the northeast
Friday into Saturday with the passage of a frontal boundary. There
is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  76  89  76 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          86  74  92  74 /  10  10   0   0
Laredo            98  75 102  76 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             92  75  96  73 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          85  76  86  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           94  75 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  76  94  75 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       85  77  87  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...ANM/88