Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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422 FXUS64 KCRP 272115 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 415 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal Risk of Severe for the northern portions of the Brush Country Sunday morning and Victoria Crossroads during the day Sunday - Minor coastal flooding through Sunday afternoon - Strong winds are expected to linger overnight; potential need for a Wind Advisory out west -Isolated to scattered showers Sunday morning A mid to upper level disturbance is moving across the Central Plains today. This will allow for some associated shortwaves to move through our area late tonight/Sunday morning. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the region with a low chance (<5%) for theses storms to become severe in nature along our northern portions of the CWA (Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads). A surface low is expected to develop out west over the Rio Grande which will enhance our pressure gradient over the western portions of the region. Winds could stay elevated in response to this which will allow for a low chance (~35%) for Wind Advisory conditions over the Brush Country overnight. The caveat is there is an inversion which will likely keep these winds (around 925mb) from reaching the surface. With these elevated winds and swell periods around 9-10 seconds, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through 12Z Monday. This in combination with the swell wave heights around 8-9 feet also prompted the extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory through Sunday Afternoon. Otherwise, tonight will be humid with lows in the 70s expected. Tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 80s to the east with lower 90s out west. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week - Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek Mid Term (Monday through Tuesday)...With the 500 mb trough moving east out of the region, flat ridging/zonal flow takes over for Monday through Tuesday. With the SE sfc flow and the moisture moving in from the Gulf (PW~1.50"), the SB CAPE get to around 2000-3000 J/kg, but the SB CIN is around 50-100 J/kg, so some moderate to strong capping. So will continue with the 15-30% chance pops over the region Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds too, will follow a diurnal curve, with the sfc winds being weak to moderate onshore (SE (120-140)) flow during the afternoon/evening hours, than then diminishing overnight to start the next round of wind. The SE wind will will help to continue to push long period swells up the beach, so minor beach flooding and rip currents will continue. Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...High pressure nudges in Tuesday night keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms at bay until Wednesday when the moisture and a series of small 500 mb shortwaves move through south Texas to keep the low chance (15-30%) for showers and thunderstorms for each afternoon through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected this afternoon across all of the TAF sites. This is expected to become predominantly MVFR by this evening between 22-04Z. Winds are expected to be elevated with gusts around 25-35KT across mainly the eastern sites beginning this afternoon (CRP and VCT). The western sites (LRD and COT) pick up later this evening around 04Z. MVFR conditions will likely persist through the remainder of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will likely persist through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated through Monday morning, so the Small Craft Advisory will continue through Monday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight and Sunday morning. The strong onshore flow will weaken through Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is then expected to persist from Monday morning through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 90 75 89 / 0 30 10 20 Victoria 73 86 72 87 / 0 50 40 30 Laredo 75 94 73 95 / 10 40 0 30 Alice 74 92 73 92 / 10 30 10 30 Rockport 74 85 74 85 / 0 30 20 30 Cotulla 74 92 72 95 / 20 50 0 20 Kingsville 74 91 75 90 / 0 30 10 30 Navy Corpus 75 85 75 85 / 0 30 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-242>247- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443- 447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....JSL/86 AVIATION...NP