Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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105 FXUS65 KCYS 152324 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 524 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will occur through the remainder of the work week, with 80s possible by Friday especially for areas along and east of I-25. - Elevated wind gusts are expected in the southeast Wyoming wind corridors on Friday and Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 The shortwave responsible for the cooler temperatures and shower activity earlier today will continue to push off to the east this afternoon and evening. As a result, showers and storms will become less numerous as the afternoon progresses with precipitation chances virtually gone later this evening. Could here a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon as there is some CAPE present, however, this cooler and moister airmass is more stable than the previous few days. Looking at warmer and drier conditions headed into the end of the work week. Weak ridging and rising mid-level heights will lead to a speedy warming trend over the next two days. By Friday afternoon, 700 mb temperatures could be up to +12C! This will lead to well above average temperatures across the CWA. Highs on Thursday will be about 15 degrees warmer compared to Wednesday`s temperatures. Highs will mainly be in the 70s for most locations. Highs on Friday jump another 5 to 10 degrees with the upper 80s potentially making an appearance in the Nebraska panhandle! Locations east of the Laramie Range can expect highs in the 80s, with 70s for areas west. The weak ridging will keep precipitation chances at a minimum both days, however, an approaching shortwave to our north could lead to a breezy afternoon on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Medium Range models are coming into better agreement with the pattern over the weekend and early next week...showing progressive west to southwest flow across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The northern branch of the polar jet stream is expected to remain north of the forecast area, and models show it as far north as the Wyoming/Montana border, therefore, there is higher confidence in temperature and POP forecasts since ensemble members are in better agreement overall. There is still some large ensemble spread with temperatures on Saturday, but believe this is due to the questionable speed of the progressive upper level trough Friday night rather than the trough/cold front digging south along the Front Range. Otherwise, Models, notably the GFS, has backed off on the windy conditions for Friday night and Saturday with 700mb winds about 10 knots lower compared to yesterday. This makes sense since the position of the upper level trough and associated cold front are located further north and move through the area earlier and quicker compared to what models showed a few days ago. Overall, should be a pleasant weekend with warm temperatures in the 70s across most of southeast Wyoming, and in the low to mid 80s across western Nebraska. Potential for showers and Tstorms will be minimal on Saturday, with widely scattered coverage on Sunday as the southern branch of the jet stream becomes more active. Expect a slow cool down next week, mainly due to increasing precipitation chances and a slow moving Pacific upper level trough. A strong midlevel shortwave is forecast to lift northeast out of the four corners region Monday and Monday night, with better forcing and more favorable moisture profiles in the low to midlevels. Models seem to be in good agreement with this portion of the forecast. Continued to increase POP for Monday through Wednesday next week for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms...peaking in the afternoon and evening hours. Due to cloud cover and cooler temperatures, the probability of strong or severe thunderstorms looks rather low early next week. Monday and Monday evening looks like the most favorable time(s) for some strong Tstorms as the trough axis moves into central Wyoming and Colorado. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Northwest flow aloft will continue. Scattered to broken clouds from 4000 to 6000 feet will occur through early evening, then skies will become clear. Rain showers will be in the vicinity of Laramie and Cheyenne until 02Z. Winds will gust to 24 knots at the Wyoming terminals until 03Z, and to 23 knots after 15Z Thursday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RUBIN