Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with a long duration X1.1 flare at
23/0133 UTC from Region 3614 (N17W00, Dso/beta). Another large flare was
observed from Region 3615 (S13E06, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) about the same
time. The eruption from 3614 appeared along a filament channel to the
north of the spot group as evident by a post eruptive arcade structure.
Associated with the flare was a 240 sfu ten cm radio burst, Type II
radio sweep (791 km/s), and a halo CME first observed at 23/0125 UTC in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Initial model runs indicated a CME arrival late
on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar. Further analysis is in progress.

Although the largest flare was associated with Region 3614, Region 3615
continues to be the largest and most complex spot group contributing
multiple M-class flares. The largest was a M4.2 at 22/2032 UTC. The
region exhibited moderate growth overnight with likely shearing
occurring in the southern half of the group.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels with a chance for an X-class flare
(R3/Strong) on 23-25 Mar, due primarily to the flare potential of
Regions 3614 and 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV protons began to increase after 23/0400 UTC
following the X1.1 flare. The S1 (Minor) threshold was reached at
23/0815 UTC and the current peak is 83.1 pfu at 23/1125 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be above S1 (Minor)
levels through the rest of 23 Mar and will likely continue through 24
Mar. There is a chance for levels to continue above the 10 pfu
(S1/Minor) threshold on 25 Mar.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 23-25 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced over the period likely due to
persistent CME activity from the 17 Mar CME. Solar wind speed was mostly
in the 330-370 km/s range. Total field ranged from 2-13 nT. The Bz
component became mostly southward from 23/0110-0915 UTC reaching a
maximum of -10 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with a rotation into a
positive sector between 22/2350-23/0247 UTC.

.Forecast...
CME influences are expected to trend towards background levels over 23
Mar. By late on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar, combined CME influence and
HSS activity is expected to cause an additional enhancement to solar
wind parameters. Solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/s is likely based on
initial model guidance.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels likely due
to persistent CME activity from the 17 Mar CME.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions are expected for the second half of 23 Mar
as CME effects diminish. Quiet to active levels are expected on 24 Mar.
By late on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar, combined activity from a CH HSS
and the 23 Mar CME are likely to cause G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate), with a
chance for G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm.


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