Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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269 FXUS63 KDLH 122139 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 439 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin end by early evening. Gusty winds to 50 mph and hail to a half inch will be possible. - Cool overnight lows through Tuesday night will keep chances for frost in the forecast. - Dry conditions will prevail for Monday and Tuesday before rain chances return for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A cold front was draped from low pressure west of James Bay into western Lake Superior, western Upper Michigan, northwest Wisconsin and central and southwestern Minnesota. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms were developing ahead of this front across mainly Sawyer and Price counties as of 4PM with gusty winds to 50 mph and hail to one half inch being possible with these storms. This activity is expected to move south and east of the region by about 6PM as the cold front passes through. Behind the front, northwesterly winds have mixed down smoke aloft from wildfires across British Columbia and Alberta. This smoke has led to some visibility restrictions across northern Minnesota and has led to Air Quality Alerts being issued for all of our northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin counties. Hi-res models show this near-surface smoke clearing the area by mid to late morning Monday. Additional smoke aloft will likely push in, but poor mixing conditions should limit it reaching the surface. Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow lows to cool into the mid to upper 30s north of the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead and a Frost Advisory remains in effect. Dry and cooler conditions will move in for Monday and Tuesday with highs within a few degrees of normal. Despite the light winds expected (less than 20 mph), afternoon RH values are expected to fall to around 30 percent or less over most of the area Monday afternoon. Current forecast RH values on Tuesday are above 30 percent, but winds will be slightly stronger than on Monday, especially near Lake Superior with easterly onshore winds. This may allow for better mixing conditions which may see afternoon RH values trend lower than currently forecast. As such, near-critical fire weather conditions will remain possible for both days. With the clear skies and light winds expected both Monday and Tuesday nights, additional Frost Advisories will likely be needed in some areas, mainly in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall chances return for Tuesday night into Thursday as a slow moving area of low pressure and upper level trough move across the Upper Midwest. Instability continues to look rather limited with this system with just light showers expected. Global models diverge heading into the weekend but continue to show chances for rainfall through the weekend. Temperatures look to trend above normal heading into the weekend as well with highs in the upper 60s and 70s possible. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A cold front is currently working across northwest Wisconsin. Smoke aloft is mixing down behind the front leading to areas of surface smoke and low ceilings. A concentrated band of smoke will move through the BRD, HIB and DLH areas over the next few hours and may bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities for a period. It is uncertain if this concentrated band will persist into the HYR area later this evening. Northwesterly winds behind the front will gust to 20 to 25 knots into this evening before diminishing. Most of the smoke is expected to mix out overnight leaving VFR conditions by sunrise Monday. However, if the smoke is not able to mix out, MVFR conditions may continue through the period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Light northwesterly winds tonight will become easterly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 knots on Monday before turning more easterly late Monday. These easterly winds wil continue for Tuesday and become stronger at the head of the lake with gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible during the day Tuesday and again on Wednesday. This may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft for a period both days from Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH