Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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454 FNUS73 KDLH 151033 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for Fry Rx...USFS National Weather Service Duluth MN 533 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 15. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... Mostly sunny skies early this morning give way to mostly cloudy skies by mid-afternoon. Outside of scattered sprinkles early to mid-afternoon today the best chance of rain arrives after 1700 LT. With rain not arriving until later in the day, relative humidity will still be able to drop out to around 30% and have good mixing. Expect fair to good smoke dispersal in the late morning and afternoon. Southeast wind gusts range from 12-15 mph today, but otherwise sustained winds from 7-9 mph are expected. Light rain tonight lasts into Thursday when a quarter inch of precipitation is forecast by tomorrow afternoon. The minimum relative humidity only drops to 65-70% Thursday behind a cold front, leading to a low mixing height aiding in only poor to fair smoke dispersal all of tomorrow. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 59. Min humidity........29 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph. Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 3400 ft AGL late in the morning. Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5300-24600 knot-ft) increasing to fair to good (25700-39200 knot-ft) late in the morning. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... SCH Weather type.... RW Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............43 45 50 54 57 58 59 59 59 58 56 RH..............51 59 49 40 34 30 29 30 32 33 36 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.11 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 Transp wind dir.E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E Transp wind spd.13 15 15 14 13 13 14 12 13 13 12 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/10005 16 23 25 28 35 39 34 35 31 26 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers in the evening. Rain showers likely overnight. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 39. Max humidity........90 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph in the late evening and overnight. Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 13 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6100-22300 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 40 60 70 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............54 50 46 45 44 41 RH..............38 43 48 49 57 70 20 ft wind......SE 9 E 9 E 9 E 10 E 9 E 9 20 ft wind gust.14 15 19 19 18 16 Mix hgt (ft)....2000 1000 600 500 600 500 Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 14 E 15 E 14 E 15 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 SDspl kt-ft/100022 11 8 7 7 7 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 51. Min humidity........70 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph in the morning and early afternoon. Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 20 mph shifting to the west around 12 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (9200-16200 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).70 60 60 60 50 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............39 40 42 45 47 49 RH..............82 85 86 86 86 83 20 ft wind......E 10 E 11 E 11 SE 10 SE 10 S 9 20 ft wind gust.18 20 20 19 16 15 Mix hgt (ft)....600 900 900 1100 1300 1500 Transport wind..SE 17 SE 20 SE 18 SE 15 S 12 W 12 Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/10009 15 14 15 13 15 $$ Forecaster...Nathan Requested by...Zach Kellerman Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414135.0/DLH .DELDT 05/15/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL zachary.kellerman@usda.gov