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000
FXUS63 KDTX 151948
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
348 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect dry conditions today into Tuesday.

- Showers are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There
is a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Area of surface high pressure centered over Manitoba extends
southeast across the Great Lakes today providing another pleasant
spring day across the region. Temps are a few degree lower than
Sunday with slightly cooler air aloft sliding in behind the front
now pushing through the Ohio Valley, but still in the mid 60s with
plenty of sun. Some additional cooling along the lake shores as some
easterly flow off the water is keeping those areas in the 50s.

Active mid week period ahead as a strong, fairly compact cutoff low
over the western conus gets picked back up by the subtropical jet.
The system will strengthen as it tracks into the Plains before
getting pulled northward by a larger and stronger northern stream
trough dropping into the Pacific NW Tuesday. HIgh pressure will
linger across lower MI Tuesday with an amplifying mid level ridge so
expectations are for a dry day but with increasing clouds through
the day the warm front lifts up toward the southern MI border and
overrunning begins. Shower chances then increase Tuesday night as
the lead arc of vorticity releases across the area from the low
which will be approaching MN/WI. Mid level deformation also lifts
into the area overnight while theta e ridge gets pushed into the
area on the nose of the mid level jet max. With the front still to
the south, all action will be elevated and doesn`t look to contain
any instability so shouldn`t be any thunderstorms overnight.

The low then tracks across northern lower which pulls the warm front
north into SEMI early in the day. Should then have a few hours in
the warm sector to build or advect instability into the region ahead
of the cold front which will pass through in the evening. Not
expecting to totally clear out as we could keep some grungy showers
around, but models advect nearly 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE so expect some
thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening and shear will
be around 30-40 knots so some organization will be possible.  SPC
keeps the southern half of the CWA in Marginal Risk for the nose of
the warm sector and cold front passing through.

Showers should come to an end Wednesday night leading to a dry
Thursday. Temps won`t cool off much behind the weak shortwave as
westerly flow keeps mild air in place. The cold front associated
with the larger northern stream low will then pass through late
Thursday into the overnight bringing potential for another round of
showers. The parent trough then looks to impact the region through
the weekend bringing waves of cooler air into the region. Coldest
air looks to slide through Saturday which will drop lows down to
around freezing. Highs through the weekend will stick in the 50s all
weekend as well.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure maintains quiet marine weather this afternoon into
tonight. Winds organize out of the northeast on Tuesday then shift
to easterly and strengthen Tuesday night ahead of a low pressure
system tracking through the Midwest. Confidence remains moderate for
gusts reaching gale force across northern Lake Huron Wednesday
morning - will maintain gale wording within the forecast and assess
the need for a Gale Watch as more of the hi-res model guidance
becomes available this evening. Question remains regarding the
extent of higher momentum mixing down to the surface as warm air
works in and introduces a stability component. Widespread showers
accompany the low late Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. A weak cold front then moves through
the region Friday with westerly winds in its wake expected to remain
light to moderate through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A warm front will lift into the region late Tuesday night into
Wednesday in advance of a strong low pressure over the midwest.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this front
with the greatest coverage occurring overnight Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Wednesday evening as this low tracks through lower Michigan and
forces a cold front through the area. Total rainfall is forecast to
reach one inch in many locations. While significant flooding is not
expected at this time, expect minor flooding in prone urban and poor
drainage areas and notable rises in area rivers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

AVIATION...

No changes of note to the previous discussion and TAF issuance.
Confidence is high for continued VFR conditions through the period.
Winds currently are light and variable at several terminals but the
overall favored direction will be from the northwest with winds
mostly below 10kt. Could see the lake breeze shift winds at DET/DTW
and MBS to the northeast early this evening, followed by a broader
veering trend tonight as the high pressure center drifts east.
Scattered cloud layers above 12000 ft AGL will become more prevalent
overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  None.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....DG
AVIATION.....TJT


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