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000
ACUS01 KWNS 221222
SWODY1
SPC AC 221220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe
wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida
coast this afternoon.

...Southeast FL coast this afternoon...
In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the
Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central
to south FL through the day.  Surface dewpoints near 70 F this
morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though
there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning
clouds/convection.  Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early
afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this
afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast.  This area will be
along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies,
where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for
semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few
hours this afternoon.

...Elsewhere...
A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains
and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface
cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central
Plains.  Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this
afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from
northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible.
Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario
tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into
southern IA/northern MO.  Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with
isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this
afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN.
Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong
synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024

$$