Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KEAX 240859
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quite windy conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Wind gusts
around 35-45 MPH anticipated. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
the region starting this morning lasting through early Monday
afternoon.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and
Monday. Primary hazards include high winds and small hail. The
severe weather threat remains low.

- Temperatures continue to waver between below and above normal
  with a warming trend expected late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Shortwave troughing embedded in the general ridging triggered
elevated showers including some mixed with sleet and flurries across
northern MO. This is expected to linger through much of the
overnight with activity generally decreasing as the night goes on,
especially as the boundary layer decouples from the surface.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows broad scale cyclogenesis across
portions of Wyoming and Colorado. This expansive area of vorticity
is expected to deepen and become more organized through the
overnight. A descending 500mb jet rounds the base of the synoptic
trough centered over the SE CONUS, this large push of cyclonic
vorticity advection hastens the development of the leeward cyclone
which in turn tightens the pressure gradient across the Plains. This
tight pressure gradient creates a broad area of gusty winds expected
to last throughout much of the day and into Monday. A wind advisory
has been issued across the region from mid morning through Monday
afternoon. This advisory encompasses the complete time line of gusty
winds which are expected starting this morning across areas west of
US-65 and progress region wide overnight Sunday into Monday; then
work their way across central MO Monday late morning/early
afternoon. Wind gusts around 35-45 MPH are anticipated.

A substantial low level jet is advecting warm air and moisture into
the central Plains this morning. A large area of relatively warmer
and more moist air pools across central KS. The exit region of the
LLJ streak positioned near the KS/NE border is triggering showers
across this warm sector. This area of shower activity pushes into
northern MO during the morning hours. Southerly flow has slowly
increased temperatures through the night curtailing concerns for
mixed precipitation; however, it is not entirely implausible across
far NW MO in the next couple hours.

Continued warm air and moisture transport eastward eventually
spreads showers into western and central MO. Most areas should
experience some precipitation by Sunday late afternoon into the
evening. Precipitation looks to start as showers with maybe an
isolated thunderstorm. Instability continues to remain underwhelming
with this push of rain;however, there is enough shear and helicity
to sustain a thunderstorm should one develop. The better chance for
thunderstorms comes Monday when the primary axis of instability
moves over the region. The severe weather threat continues to remain
marginal; however, an isolated strong storm with high winds and hail
are possible, especially with such breezy antecedent conditions.
PWAT values range from 0.5 inches to 1 inch throughout the day
highlighting a possibility for heavy rainfall. This will result in
the potential for some areas getting significantly more or less rain
than nearby regions.

As the cyclone pivots north and east through the day Monday more
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over areas east of
US-65. Storm chances look to back build slightly westward Monday
night before the system vacates the area Tuesday. A strong push of
cold air on the back side of the system presents a parting
opportunity for wintry precipitation as temperatures cool to at or
below freezing. No accumulations are expected. Ridging builds across
the central CONUS mid week. Unfortunately, upper level flow remains
northwesterly keeping cooler conditions around for a bit, but the
temperature trend is expected to warm back above normal towards the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Windy VFR conditions persist through much of the period.
Multiple rounds of SHRA are expected to impact the terminals
lowering flight categories.

Windy conditions persist through the TAF period. Wind gusts
become more widespread after sunrise reaching 30-35 kts
(isolated higher) throughout the afternoon. A couple rounds of
SHRA are expected. A small wave this morning is possible
affecting terminals north of the MO River. The second is
expected later this afternoon and evening affecting all the
terminals. SHRA with some +RA is anticipated with some isolated
TS possible. TS chances increase just outside the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.