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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131728
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1128 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Upper-level ridging will shift east today, allowing for deep
southwesterly flow across the Borderland. That means a mix of
sunshine and passing high clouds. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer than normal. The airmass will be quite dry. Winds will be
breezy in the afternoon. We repeat these conditions Sunday, with
winds trending toward mildly windy. Monday is a "watch out" day
with strong to very strong winds, blowing dust, and critical to
extreme fire danger as the next Pacific storm passes. For the rest
of the work week, we will continue with seasonably warm
conditions, with very dry air in place, and afternoon breezy to
windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today we see the upper ridge shift east as the next Pacific low
pressure system begins to nudge toward the west coast. For our
region this will place us under a deep southwest flow regime,
which will persist through Monday. For the weekend we will see
plenty of sunshine, with some passing high clouds. Temperatures
will average about five degrees warmer than the daily averages,
but short of daily records. The airmass in general, but especially
in the boundary layer, will be exceptionally dry. We will see deep
mixing and weak surface troughing lead to breezy and marginally
windy afternoons. Overall, the postcard conditions for what many
think of as "typical Spring season conditions" for the SW. Nothing
really critical, but conditions priming ahead of Monday`s arrival
of the system mentions above.

Early Monday that Pacific low/trough tracks over SCAL, across LVS,
and begins to life over the Four Corners region. This trajectory
keeps the minimal moisture of the storm well north of our region,
so it will pass dry for us. However, this positioning does place
the system`s jet aloft directly overhead during the afternoon
hours on Monday. We also see a nice and tight surface pressure
gradient, due to lee cyclogenesis over E CO, and high pressure
pushing in from AZ with a frontal boundary inbound from the west.
Thus we will see strong winds develop by late morning, and persist
into the mid evening hours. Looking at ensembles, the GEFS resolves,
as typical, the strongest winds, when compared to the Euro and
Canadian ensembles. The Canadian is the lowest, but the Euro has
been trending stronger, as it`s deterministic solution is
beginning to come into phase (spatially and temporally) with the
GFS. Looking at clusters, the GFS contributes most to the
strongest wind/gusts output, with the Euro contributing most to
the second strongest wind/gust output. Looking at wind/gust
magnitudes and probabilities with DESI and WSUP for the 75th
percentiles...max sustained wind speeds look to easily fall within
the 30-35+ kt range for nearly all our area. Gust speeds look to
hit High Wind Warning for the mountains with very high
probability, and our lowlands with moderate probabilities. Thus
the High Wind Watch looks good for Monday afternoon. Of course,
with the lack of rain, warm temperatures, deep mixing and surface
lofting, and a favorable SW trajectory across source regions to
our south and southwest, we are expecting a pretty widespread
major impact from blowing dust. In addition fire weather concerns
will rise to critical and extreme.

Behind the storm system, flow starts turning more westerly with
temperatures remaining near or slightly above average. Overnight
lows will be cool out west with fairly dry atmosphere and winds
dropping off at night. Winds will be low end breezy through at least
mid week with little impact expected. There is some fairly large
differences in models going into Friday when the GFS is bringing a
fairly strong back door cold front through, but the operational is
an extreme outlier compared to it`s ensembles. The EC now shows some
weak ridging and the front not making it anywhere near the CWA. Will
leave NBM temps which are close to average and see how things go
with models trends.

Monday`s storm is progressive, and exits the Rockies, heading east
into the Central Plains early Tuesday. We will be a few degree
cooler behind the front, but with temperatures near seasonal
averages. For the rest of the work week, the western U.S. will be
under a low amplitude westerly flow pattern which will keep our
weather fairly persistent, day to day. This will mean continue dry
conditions, temperatures steady and slightly warmer than normal.
Afternoons breezy, and occasionally windy. We will be watching
next Friday, as the GFS shows a backdoor front pushing in from the
plains. It looks to bring some moisture with it, but it looks
minimal and shallow, and with no upper level dynamics to work
with.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW220. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon from 200-240 with speeds of 10-15 knots and gusts to 25
knots. Speeds come down after dark.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

This weekend`s weather will provide the typical setup for a
critical fire weather day on Monday. We have been dry and warm
under high pressure the past few days, but today that high
pressure ridge shifts east, and we come under deep southwest flow
ahead of a slow-approaching Pacific trough. The upper high
started the warming and drying leading up to today. This weekend
will accelerate the drying of the atmosphere and fuels with
increasing SW winds, and lower RH. Fuels will trend sharply drier
this weekend as we see poor overnight recoveries, and low-teen to
single- digit RH for extended periods of the day. Afternoon winds
will be breezy today, and occasionally marginally windy Sunday.

Monday is the kicker as the Pacific low pressure system moves
across the Four Corners. It passes far too north to provide our
area any moisture or precipitation, so it will pass dry. However
it will pass with perfect timing and positioning to maximize our
wind potential for Monday afternoon. We will mix down from a jet
aloft, and have tight surface pressure gradients, which will both
allow for strong to very strong winds for the entire region. SW
winds of 30-40 mph plus, and gusts of 50-70 mph are expected,
along with RH ranging from 7-9% eastern and central lowlands to
10-15% western lowland and area mountains. We already have a Fire
Weather Watch in place for Monday...it will get upgraded to a Red
Flag Warning. This looks to be a high-end RFW with conditions
Critical to Extreme.

The storm system quickly exits early Tuesday, with a flat and dry
westerly flow pattern across the SW U.S. for the rest of the week.
This will keep the region warm, dry, and breezy each afternoon;
keeping fire weather conditions elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               85  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               81  49  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               57  39  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    80  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   82  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                79  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                85  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             87  52  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               77  52  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   85  52  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  49  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            80  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    83  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 82  50  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                80  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  71  46  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                68  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 67  42  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  73  40  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                77  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                80  44  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             72  39  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   75  41  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    78  44  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               73  44  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  75  44  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   79  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  80  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           80  44  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               73  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     TXZ418>424.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

NM...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     NMZ403-405>411-414>417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for NMZ111>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown