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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201747
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1147 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Other than isolated showers and storms across far northeastern
areas this afternoon, quiet conditions are expected into next
week. Breezy and dry weather is forecast for much of next week
with increasing fire danger late in the period. After a brief
cool down on Sunday, temperatures rebound to above normal early in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The backdoor cold front has stalled just west of the Rio Grande
Valley, indicated by a decent dew point gradient (30s/40s to the
east and teens to the west). An approaching shortwave trough will
try to kick off some weak convection this afternoon along our
northern CWA border, but forcing and moisture are pretty meager.
There actually is some instability (up to 500 J/kg SFC CAPE) and
shear (25-30kt bulk) modeled across the northern San Andres and
northern Otero county. The dry lower levels will prove difficult
for rain to reach the ground, but gusty downdrafts/outflows are
possible, as well as dry lightning. QPF is expected to be light
with any storms that develop as they progress to the east-
southeast. The Sacs, east slopes especially, have the best chance
at getting a storm during the afternoon. By sunset, the shortwave
moves off to the east with drier air moving in from the west,
largely ending the threat of any convection.

Meanwhile, the front sloshes around the Rio Grande during the day
with relatively moist, easterly winds continuing to the east and
dry, westerlies to the west. Sunday will be quiet as some of the
surface moisture pushes towards the AZ border with the front. A
mix of sun and clouds is expected with some cumulus buildup during
the afternoon.

Weak ridging builds in for the first half of next week with a
minor wave passing to the south Sunday night. This feature should
produce mid-high cloud cover for Monday but will otherwise not
have any impact. For Tuesday, our winds shift westerly and become
breezier as the ridge is nudged eastward by an approaching upper
low. This system opens up into a shortwave trough on Wednesday
while moving into the SW US. It is modeled to swing through the
Four Corners region into Thursday, inducing a 995-ish mb lee
cyclone in SE CO and surface troughing through NM. Breezy to windy
conditions are forecast for Thursday as the surface low
strengthens. Breezy west winds persist on Friday before another
more potent trough moves into the region for next weekend,
bringing a shot at strong winds.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler for today with the shortwave
passage and lingering cold front, decreasing some more for Sunday.
After that, we warm back to above normal by midweek underneath
the ridge. Then, temperatures cool slightly each day later in the
week behind the two upper troughs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions through the period with FEW100 SCT250.
Along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mtns...BKN-OVC010 with
patchy 3SM BR. Surface winds east/southeast 10-15 knots from about
the Cont Divide east. To the west...west/southwest winds 8-12
knots. The west/southwest winds mixing back east to T or C-Las
Cruces line early this evening, then retreat back toward the
Arizona border by early Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through Monday, then increasing
later next week. For today, dry lightning is a concern for
northern areas of FWZs 112 and 113 during the afternoon. There is
a slight chance of a few dry thunderstorms, in addition to gusty
outflow/downdraft winds, especially along the east slopes of the
Sacs. However, added surface moisture from the backdoor cold front
may help alleviate those concerns. Dry and modestly breezy
conditions contribute to areas of elevated fire danger for today
west of the Rio Grande. Some of that moisture filters into western
areas for Sunday, allowing min RHs to mostly climb above critical
levels through Monday.

We dry out from Tuesday onward as winds shift to westerly. Winds
increase a bit as well with 20-ft winds near 15 mph Tues- Wed,
resulting in elevated-near critical fire weather according to our
RFTI grids. Two upper troughs then move through the region later
next week, increasing winds to critical levels (20-25 mph at
20-ft) starting on Thursday. RFTI rises to mostly near-critical
category as fuels continue to dry, including in the mountains.

Min RHs will be 15-40% today east of the Rio Grande, 7-15% west;
15-35% everywhere Sunday and Monday; then 7-15%. Vent rates range
from poor in FWZ 113 to excellent west of the Rio Grande today,
then fair to very good Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  83  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            73  43  67  43 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               81  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               78  43  75  43 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  34  54  32 /  30  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    81  48  76  49 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              76  46  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   84  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                82  46  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       80  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                70  41  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             81  44  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               72  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   80  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             81  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           80  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            81  43  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    83  44  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 84  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                75  44  72  43 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  35  60  34 /  20  10   0   0
Mescalero                67  37  65  36 /  30  20   0   0
Timberon                 65  34  62  32 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  74  42  71  41 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                81  44  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                80  43  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  42  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   80  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    82  36  82  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  33  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  45  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   82  45  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  83  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           82  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner