Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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381 FXUS64 KEPZ 031731 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1131 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across this weekend and into much of next week. Afternoon breezes this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, will increase in speed Sunday and Monday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. The winds will create blowing dust and combined with the very dry air, critical fire weather conditions will also develop. The winds and critical fire conditions will likely continue Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current satellite/sfc obs show dry-line just east of Carlsbad- Roswell line and with typical slow nocturnal westward movement, will pass through those sites and near the eastern CWA border next few hours before mixing out back eastward. Aloft, a weak short wave trough over northern Utah will sweep east across the central Rockies and allowing afternoon breezes to develop this afternoon. High temps will remain around 4 to 7 degrees above normal. Much the same again Saturday as a short wave trough moves up in the sub-tropical jet that sweeps across southern New Mexico for more afternoon breezes. Winds begin a ramp up starting Sunday as a Pacific storm system moves over the Great Basin. Winds become quite gusty with some blowing dust both Sunday and Monday. With fire conditions becoming critical many areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for the southern New Mexico zones. Winds over west Texas will be slightly lower so will leave those zones out for now. The story remains the same through the rest of the forecast period (Thursday); windy afternoons, very dry airmass with critical fire conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW250. There will be lots of SKC. The winds will be from the southwest and light to breezy (10 to 15 kts) with gust up to 25 kts through 01Z. The winds will become less breezy thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Very dry, warm, elevated to critical fire conditions will be with us at least through mid week of next week, with no prospects of rain through that period. Winds become gusty Sunday and persist through Wednesday. A fire watch will be issued for NM zones for Sunday, and more watches/RFW likely beyond Sunday. West Texas zones left of watch Sunday due to slightly lower winds, but by Monday and Tuesday their winds will be as high the rest of the forecast area. Min RHs: Lowland 7-12% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through Wednesday. Overnight recovery, especially the lowlands, will be poor. Vent rates excellent through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 88 54 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 66 40 67 37 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 85 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 76 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 86 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 48 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 86 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 50 89 53 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 90 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 81 53 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 54 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 86 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 85 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 87 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 43 74 40 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 76 42 76 40 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 75 42 76 38 / 0 0 10 10 Winston 79 43 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 84 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 80 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 83 39 83 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 78 35 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 79 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 84 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 48 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 77 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira