010
FNUS74 KEPZ 302356
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
556 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire danger on Wednesday with southwest winds 15 to 25
mph mid-afternoon. Very dry conditions will continue with midday
RH 8-12% through the rest of the week. Breezy southwest winds
again Friday, Saturday but not anticipating Red Flags at this
time. Vent rate categories remaining Excellent with smoke
transport to the ENE.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph increasing to
                    around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 11 mph increasing to southwest 21
                    to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40300 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (151800 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      2      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............47     61     66     69     70
RH..............34     19     13     11     10
20 ft wind......W 5    SW 8   SW 13  SW 13  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.8      18     25     25     26
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   7300   7300   8100   8100
Transport wind..W 11   SW 21  SW 21  SW 25  SW 25
Haines index....3      4      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..40     152    152    183    183
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (158400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      7      4      4      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     58     51     47     43     40
RH..............11     19     27     32     38     42
20 ft wind......W 14   W 14   W 10   W 8    W 8    W 6
20 ft wind gust.26     26     18     16     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....7500   7500   600    600    500    500
Transport wind..W 22   W 22   W 19   W 19   W 17   W 17
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..158    158    9      9      8      8
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (105800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (150000
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 6 or high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........11        6         13        34
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............39        51        65        69
RH..............46        34        17        13
20 FT wind......W 5G12    NW 8G15   W 9G18    SW 12G20
Mix hgt (ft)....3700      3700      9400      11900
Transport wind..NW 14     NW 14     W 13      W 14
Haines index....2         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..48        48        106       150
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. West winds
around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...SILVER CITY RANGER DISTRICT
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.2/EPZ
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV