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FNUS72 KFFC 252112
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Spot Forecast for Wolkpen Trail...USFS
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Good afternoon -- High level clouds remain present across much of
North Georgia including the wildfire site location. Current RH
values hover around 35% and are expected to remain above critical
thresholds. Current 10hr fuels continue to dry out with values
between 6-8. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for Union
County until 5AM Tuesday. Surface winds remain out of the east
with gusts nearing 20 MPH at times. Winds have largely
underperformed so far today though isolated wind gusts 25 to 35
MPH will be possible through the overnight period as the next
weather system approaches from the west overnight. Across the
highest elevations winds may be slightly higher at times (35+ MPH)
overnight into early Tuesday morning. Given the under performance
of winds thus far, the day shift elected to hold off on the
mention of a High Wind Warning across North Georgia. 20ft winds
will remain out of the SE 15 to 18 MPH. Southeasterly transport
winds will ramp up overnight with speeds 20 to 25 MPH.

Cloud cover will continue to increase through the overnight
period ahead of another weather system that will bring wetting
rain to the area on Tuesday. Rain chances are slated to increase
(20-30% chance) after 4AM Tuesday, with widespread rain at or
shortly after 8AM Tuesday. Thunder will be possible particularly
after 8AM. Breezy winds will slacken Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall
totals through Tuesday will range from half an inch to an inch and
a quarter. Though rain is expected to continue through Tuesday
coming to an end on Wednesday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Dewpoint............31.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 25 mph.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................65.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
Dispersion index....65.

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0
LAL.............1
Temp............56
Dewpoint........31
RH..............38
20 FT wind dir..SE
20 FT wind spd..16
20 FT wind gust.28
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3
Transp wind dir.SE
Transp wind spd.25
Dispersion idx..65
LVORI...........1
ADI.............65
Haines index....4
Ceiling (kft)...25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0500, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 43.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 23 mph with gusts to
                    around 37 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 24 to 28 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................21 to 48.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 1.5.
Dispersion index....48 decreasing to 26.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........66  76  69  70  74  77  76  80  79  83  86  88
Weather cov.....                                        SCH CHC
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                            SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............55  54  52  50  50  49  50  50  49  50  49  50
Dewpoint........32  33  34  35  37  38  39  41  42  43  44  45
RH..............41  44  51  55  61  64  68  71  75  78  84  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..16  17  20  21  22  22  23  23  23  22  21  22
20 FT wind gust.28  29  32  33  36  36  36  37  37  36  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.24  24  24  25  26  26  28  28  28  26  26  25
Dispersion idx..48  21  21  22  24  28  29  30  29  24  23  22
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.............48  21  21  22  24  28  29  30  29  24  23  22
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  6.0 3.0 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
                    the morning, then increasing to 70 percent late
                    in the morning increasing to 90 percent in the
                    late morning and early afternoon decreasing to
                    80 percent decreasing to 60 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................2 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............48 increasing to 52 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to
                    around 35 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 24 to 32 mph decreasing to 13 to 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................10 to 41.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.52 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......1.2 decreasing to 0.9 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 0.7 late in the morning
                    decreasing to 0.6 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 0.7 increasing to 0.8 late in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion index....21 increasing to 38 in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 28 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 17 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 10.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  93  94  87  92  95  88  90  89  89  83  82
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40  60  60  70  90  90  90  90  90  80  80  60
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
Temp............49  49  49  48  50  50  52  53  53  54  55  56
Dewpoint........46  46  47  47  48  48  50  50  50  52  53  52
RH..............89  89  91  95  94  93  93  92  91  93  92  86
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..22  22  21  21  21  22  21  18  16  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.35  35  33  35  35  35  33  30  28  18  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.24  24  25  28  31  32  30  25  21  17  15  13
Dispersion idx..21  35  36  40  41  40  36  30  25  20  13  10
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
ADI.............21  35  36  40  41  40  36  30  25  20  13  10
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   4
Ceiling (kft)...1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8

$$
Forecaster...Wyatt
Requested by...Casy Young
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2408419.0/FFC
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gagic@firenet.gov


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