149
FXUS63 KFGF 081153
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday in northwest and north
  central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

500 mb upper low moving south now and into western SD. Satellite
shows main clouds with it clearing from the east with clearing
into Carrington and near Devils Lake. In its place is an area of
high/mid clouds fromo northern MN moving west and extending into
far NE ND and southern Manitoba. Within thsse clouds are pockets
of IFR cigs and some fog which is present around Park Rapids.
Patchy fog found in a few other spots now that we have past
sunrise. Clear sky SE ND into WC MN. So tweeked sky cover a bit
but NBM/conshort blend covered things pretty well. Idea of a few
showers this aftn/eve still look reasonable.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

500 mb low has moved back west and was moving into SE Montana at
07z. This upper low will then drop south-southeast thru western,
south central SD thru today as 500 mb heights rise thru the
Canadian prairies. What this means is that overall chances for
precipitation today is quite low. Sfc heating with enough cold
air aloft will givef a few hundred j/kg CAPE in South Dakota
into southern MN with some potential instability skirting our
far south. Overall short term models indicate mid aftn to early
evening spotty showers a possibility southern 2/3 of the fcst
area. Will maintain slight chance wording generally along and
south of Hwy 2 19z-00z and far south thru 03z.

Cloud cover a mix of some patchy low clouds around Bemidji and
Park Rapids (with some fog as well), with potential for some low
clouds to expand west into the central RRV. Otherwise stratocu
and mid clouds with clear breaks. This variable sky cover will
continue today then as upper low sinks farther south tonight and
drier air moves in gradually from the north overnight into
Thursday will see more widespread clearing.

Highs today and Thursday mid 60s to low 70s.

500 mb ridge building into NW Canada will kick an upper level
wave southward into Manitoba and NW Ontario Thursday night and
this wave will move southeast thru Minnesota on Friday. With it
scattered showers, higher chances north central MN (BDE-BJI-
PKD) with low pops back into the Red River valley. A few
afternoon t-storms are possible east of the Red River in
Minnesota where 500 mb short wave tracks though as MUCAPES reach
300-600 j/kg, Focus is more NE into east central MN.

That moves out and this weekend overall is pretty quiet and
mild. Highs in the 70s. Fast WNW flow aloft will bring potential
for a couple weak short waves and with 70s in the aftn some late
day or evening showers are possible, with slight chc pops noted
near Canadian border and NW MN. GEFS and ECMWF ensembles
indicate no clear signal for any signifcant precipitation this
weekend from these waves.

Into next week...indications are that a stronger 500 mb wave
will move east or southeast into the plains by mid next week
increasing shower or t-storm chances. A decent signal for this
shows up on GFS ensembles with increased chances for
precipitation. NBM 4.1 probs for rainfall amounts indicate low
probs (20-30 pct) for more than 0.50 inch rainfall 12z Tue-12z
Thu). ECMWF extreme forecast index show nothing significant thru
thru Wed next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The low clouds that were in the Bemidji cleared out living some
mid clouds. Light fog in the area too with patches of low
clouds. Outside of BJI expectation is for VFR conditions today
with a mainly east wind 7 to 12 kts. Will need to watch DVL
airport for a brief low cloud period though this morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle