349
FXUS63 KFGF 030822
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 this
afternoon then a nice weekend in store.

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers coming to an end for most this morning with a few remaining
along the international border yet. Clouds continue to clear quickly
behind the rain with at least a few hours of sun likley south of HWY
200 today. Along HWY 2 and north another piece of energy will
rotate around the parent trough with associated PVA and low
level cold air advection causing the formation of scattered
showers/thundershowers across northern areas this afternoon.
Resulting CAPE from the steepening lapse rates could top 100-200
j/kg. Not unreasonable to see some small hail with this though
shallow storm tops to <6km and minimal depth in the HGZ would
likely limit any hail that does occur to pea size. Not
expecting much in terms of rain accumulation this afternoon with
the 25th/75th showing 0.10" to 0.25" primarily north of HWY 2
though a few of these showers depending on the exact track of
the wave could make it a bit further south towards HWY 200.
This evening a band of h850 fgen in South Dakota will shift
east bringing shower chances across the far southern valley
into west central Minnesota though a quick forward speed should
limit amounts to under 0.25".

Shortwave ridging then begins to move in behind this pair of
Friday waves with the bulk of the clouds clearing through the
day on Saturday leaving a nice end to the weekend with highs
climbing into the 60s and an outside chance (10%) at 70s in the
valley.

The nice weather doesnt last long however as another upper low
barrels east from the rockies becoming very negatively tilted as it
reaches the Dakotas Monday. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the
low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph
with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing
confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level
flow wil also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from
the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. CWASP values are currently
forecast to be the highest we have seen yet this year with CSU
ML highlighting our area in a 5% chance for severe weather.
Whether this threat materializes will remain to be seen but
between the strong kinematics and moisture return at least a few
necessary ingredients will likely be in place. Taking a step
back and just looking at QPF probs best chances for over 1" look
to be in western and central North Dakota through Wednesday AM.
25th/75th would generally result in 0.5-1.5" for the forecast
area.

Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt
between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper
low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest
flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being
favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the
wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Skies have partially cleared over SE ND into WC MN with edge of
main clouds near a Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Bemidji line. As
sfc low continues to move north and into Manitoba prior to 12z
do look for remaining areas with southeast winds to turn
southwest, with all areas seeing a west-southwest wind Friday at
times gusty in the midday and aftn to near 30 kts, more so in E
ND and the RRV. Clouds are likely to remain along Hwy 2 and
north thru Friday daytime. Though MVFR cigs may improve some as
rain ends, and Friday will see cloud bases more in the lower end
VFR range. CU may bring some lower end VFR ceilings back into
SE ND/WC MN midday and aftn Friday as well.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Riddle