000
FXUS63 KFGF 270313
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light to moderate rain are expected through the
  remainder of the day and into the weekend. Probability of 0.5
  inch of rain is at 60 percent across much of the area, with
  higher amounts possible in west-central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The mid/upper level low continues it`s slow progression east-
northeast and is filling in again where a mid level dry slot was
in place earlier. The main deformation is still just to our
west-northwest. As with before, where returns are less there are
still reports of drizzle (sometimes a heavier drizzle) with
light fog. There were some adjustments made to reflect higher
coverage of light precipitation even in these gaps.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The mid level low is centered near Southeast SD and our region
continues to see periods of showers and a more organized
deformation band/area of rain near our west. This deformation
zone is barely over the Devils Lake Basin but should transition
east based on HREF, eventually moving over all of eastern
ND/northwest MN tonight. Even between more organized pockets of
light to moderate rain, where a mid level dry slot has
developed, saturated BL conditions have supported drizzle and
light fog. So, ultimately we aren`t going to see a break/dry
conditions tonight even where radar returns are much less. Near
term adjustments were made to temps/winds, but main forecast
trends are on track tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An active period of weather is expected to continue through the
weekend and into early next week. Light to moderate rain is lifting
north this afternoon, with the first wave now approaching the
International Border. Another wave of precipitation is situated
south of the I-94 corridor and will gradually lift north through the
afternoon and evening. Rain chances will diminish Saturday morning
before our next system approaches late Saturday into Sunday.

An H5 upper low brings additional rain chances Sunday into Monday,
with another chance to see isolated embedded thunderstorms. This
system will bring similar QPF to the area, with a range of 0.25 inch
to 0.50 inch of rain possible from northwest to southeast. East to
northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are possible through much of the day
Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler heading into Sunday as
highs struggle to climb out of the 40s.

Temperatures on Monday remain on the cooler side, with highs once
more in the 40s to near 50 degrees as near-zonal H5 flow prevails. A
shortwave traverses the Northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, with
another chance for light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IFR (some pockets of MVFR) stratus along with periods of rain,
drizzle, and light fog continue to impact eastern ND and
northwest MN, and this should linger through the night before
gradually improving on Saturday as the low pressure system
shifts east and drier air arrives. Prevailing VFR conditions
are more likely in northeast ND during the late afternoon period
Saturday, with low ceilings (at least MVFR) shown to hold in
place elsewhere during the entire TAF period. Winds should shift
from the east- southeast to the northeast and eventually
increase from the north Saturday on the back side of the low
pressure.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR