Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281930
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
230 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30% chance for minor impacts Friday into Friday night due to
  snow and mixed precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Upper level ridge continues to propagate eastward along with a
surface high. This has helped create sunny skies across the northern
plains. Current satellite shows the vast area of sunshine in eastern
North Dakota and snow cover just east of the Red River Valley within
the trees. Upstream high level clouds are moving into western North
Dakota as our next system approaches the region for Friday.

Upper level ridging turns zonal early this weekend, with a quick
moving short wave propagating along the International Border. A warm
front propagating ahead of the synoptic forcing shifts west to east
Friday into Saturday morning bringing chances for snow and mixed
precipitation. Post weekend, flow turns split, with northwesterly in
the northern United States and southwesterly flow in the central
United States. One system propagates along the International Border
Sunday into Tuesday, with another shifting out of the four corners
into the upper Midwest. An upper level ridge then develops out in
the Pacific northwest early to mid next week.

Plentiful sunshine today, with limited snow cover in eastern North
Dakota has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the mid to
upper 30s. Areas east of the valley have remained in the lower 30s
thanks to the snowpack lingering from the past system. Quiet weather
turns to precipitation chances Friday as a short wave moves along
the International Border. A warm front shifts eastward across the
state ahead of the system bringing warm air advection into the
region. Precipitation chances increase ahead of the front, with a
warm nose noted in the southern Red River Valley early Friday
morning. This brings a 20% chance for freezing rain during the early
morning hours on Friday for the southern Red River Valley.
Meanwhile, snow overspreads the Devils Lake Basin and propagates
eastward along the Highway 2 corridor. Snow will be organized along
the front, with 30-40% chance for high intense snowfall rates of up
to an inch per hour. Winds remain around 5-10kts, with snowfall
rates being the main driver for any reduction to visibility.
Frontogentic forcing is progressive and perpendicular to the Highway
2 corridor which decreases the residence time. This helps cut down
snowfall totals and locations seeing longer duration reductions to
visibility. Snow shifts eastward through the day on Friday, with it
exiting north central Minnesota by the overnight hours on Friday.
Probabilities of seeing 2 inches or higher are 40% along the Highway
2 corridor points north.

As the front propagates eastward drier air filters into the mid to
upper levels, with lingering low level saturation. Lingering
synoptic forcing behind the front combined with low level
saturation, and lack of ice aloft brings the chance for freezing
drizzle post front. Chances start in the afternoon for the Devils
Lake Basin and reach the Red River Valley by the evening hours.
Chances linger for areas east of the valley for the late evening to
early overnight hours before drier air starts to reach the lower
levels. Probabilities of seeing freezing drizzle are 20% across the
forecast area (especially along the highway 2 corridor) Friday
afternoon in the Devils Lake Basin and the evening hours for the Red
River Valley. Confidence is low in FZDZ as it hinges on the lift,
amount of drier air that filters into the mid to upper levels, and
how long the low level saturation lingers.

An SPS was issued for this potential along with the snow potentially
impacting the Friday commutes. Probabilities of seeing minor impacts
to travel are 30% due to the sun angle and warmer temperatures
helping to keep ground surfaces warm during the late morning through
evening hours limiting ice and snow accumulations until ground
temperatures drop below freezing. Impacts to travel will be possible
Friday night into Saturday as temperatures in the air and on the
ground reach below freezing helping to refreeze surfaces. This could
create slick travel conditions during the overnight hours on Friday
and into Saturday morning.

Quiet conditions move in for Saturday and Sunday before another
system works its way along the International Border and another
system moves through the central plains. At this time, precipitation
chances are on the lower side (20%). Temperatures will start to
increase through the early and mid portions of next week as a ridge
begins to build out west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Sunny skies with VFR conditions this afternoon and evening.
Winds remain light and variable, becoming sustained out of the
SE post 00z. Clouds start to move into the area post 00z, but
remain higher and ceilings continue as VFR. Cloud coverage
becomes OVC post 6z, with snow moving in from the west near 10z
for DVL, GFK, TVF, and FAR. Snow continues to spread eastward
post TAF period. FZDZ is possible around 10-14z for DVL, GFK,
and FAR, but chances are less than 20 percent. Confidence
remains low on the FZDZ. Ceilings reach MVFR for DVL near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender


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